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The Curious Case Of The "Strong" January Retail Sales: It Was All In The Seasonal Adjustment

The Curious Case Of The "Strong" January Retail Sales: It Was All In The Seasonal Adjustment

There was hardly a blemish in today's retail sales report: the January numbers not only beat expectations across the board, including the all important control group which printed at 0.6% or the highest since May, but the December data was also revised notably higher. At first glance, great news for those who hope consumer spending is finally getting some traction from collapsing gasoline prices.

And yet, even a modestly deeper look below the strong retail sales headline numbers once again reveals just how this "across the board beat" was accomplished.

Retail Sales Beat Expectations, Control Group Rises Most Since May Delaying "Fed Relent"

Retail Sales Beat Expectations, Control Group Rises Most Since May Delaying "Fed Relent"

There was much at stake in today's retail sales report, because had the Census reported another miss in the headline, ex auto and control group data, it would have made the Fed's job of maintain the illusion of a recovery into a rate hike cycle virtually impossible. Luckily for Yellen, the numbers came out and they were were beats across the board.

Deutsche Bank Rallies On Modest Debt Buyback Plan, Schaeuble Proclaims "Strong, Resilient Bank"

Deutsche Bank Rallies On Modest Debt Buyback Plan, Schaeuble Proclaims "Strong, Resilient Bank"

Deustche Bank stock is ripping 10% higher after confirming old news that it will undertake a modest debt buyback of $2 billion and €3 billion (not including the CoCos). Have no fear though as Wolfgang Schaeuble proclaimed Deutsche Bank is a "strong bank" that ios "resilient" and "well positioned."

 

Back to the start of the week...

 

 

Full Statement:Deutsche Bank announces a public tender offer to purchase certain series of EUR and USD-denominated senior unsecured debt securities.

The War on Cash is About to Go into Hyperdrive Pt 2

Yesterday we outlined that Central Banks’ War on Cash is about to go into Hyperdrive.

Today we’re discussing just the policies Central Banks are already working to implement to eviscerate savings.

Globally, over 50% of Government bonds currently yield 1% or less. These are bonds that are negative in real terms meaning they are trailing well below the rate of inflation.

This Is The NIRP "Doom Loop" That Threatens To Wipeout Banks And The Global Economy

This Is The NIRP "Doom Loop" That Threatens To Wipeout Banks And The Global Economy

Remember the vicious cycle that threatened the entire European banking sector in 2012?

It went something like this: over indebted sovereigns depended on domestic banks to buy their debt, but when yields on that debt spiked, the banks took a hit, inhibiting their ability to fund the sovereign, whose yields would then rise some more, further curtailing banks’ ability to help out, and so on and so forth.

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