Business

When it comes to Wall Street permabulls, no one name sticks out more than that of FundStrat's (formerly JPM's) Tom Lee. Which is why, when even the traditional CNBC host during market up days, turns modestly bearish as he has in recent weeks and admits the investing community is gripped by a "growth scare" it is a notable event. As he writes, "the S&P 500 has been struggling since the start of the year and markets remain extremely on edge given the multitude of risks facing the market."

Last summer, China unleashed an unprecedented array of measures - up to and including the arrest of "malicious short sellers" and prominent hedge fund mangers - to prevent its stock market bubble from bursting. It failed. A few months later, the chaos has spilled over from the relative containment of the capital markets and has engulfed not only the country's FX reserves, and capital account, but also the entire economy.

Submitted by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

The Fed Vice-Chair has begun laying the groundwork for NIRP.

The US Federal Reserve is obsessed with market reactions to its policies. Because of this, anytime the Fed plans to announce a major change in policy, it preps the markets via numerous leaks and hints… oftentimes for months in advance.

An excellent example of this concerns the Fed’s decision to taper QE back in 2013.

At that time, the Fed had been engaging in two open ended-QE programs… programs that had been running for over six months.

Ask the Fed what market indicators are implying about recession odds and it will tell you: about 4%. There is one problem with the Fed's model: as Deutsche Bank's Dominic Konstam shows, it is wrong due to the Fed's own intervention in the yield curve.