The bounce of the last few days has investors wondering if the bottom is in.
Unfortunately, it very likely is not.
High Yield bonds have lead stocks to the upside. They are now leading to the downside, and the High Yield bond market indicates we have further to fall.
If this is not compelling enough consider that the microcap index, the Russell 2000, which leads the S&P 500 indicates stocks have a LONG ways to fall.
It must have been scary for Boeing for those few months in which the all important Ex-Im bank was taken offline. The result: moments ago BA announced Q4 earnings which while beating expectations (which were sharply lowered in recent months) of $1.27, were still a 31% drop compared to Q4 of last year, driven by a 4% drop in the top line, leading to a substantial decline in gross profit from $3.8 billion to just 2.9 billion, and a whopping 38% plunge in operating cash flow to just $3.1 billion (and $2.5 biliion in FCF).
There were many excuses in Bill Ackman's annual letter to shareholders, in fact some 13 pages worth, which sought to explain how "Pershing Square funds suffered their greatest peak-to-trough decline and worst annual performance ever."
To be sure, Ackman is quick to point out that the 21% plunge in P&L in 2015 was not just due to his infamous tryst with Valeant, although that's where it started:
While the focus in the overnight session has traditionally been about two things, namely oil and China, today one can also throw in AAPL which is down 4% in the pre-market after its disappointing earnings yesterday in which it confirmed our channel-checked warnings about China from last summer, and the Fed which is set to release the January FOMC statement this afternoon.