One month ago, when looking at the latest Bank of America credit and debit card spending data, we presented something that the retailers knew all too well: US retail spending was plunging:
Having told banks and investors "don't panic" in September, amid spiking interbank lending rates and surging default/devaluation risks, it appears the massive shortage of dollars that we warned about in December has washed tsunami-like ashore in oil-producing Nigeria. Following the Central bank's decision this week to halt dollar sales to non-bank FX market operators, black market exchange rates spiked to 282/USD (vs 199 official) and CDS spiked to record highs implying drastic devaluations loom.
Just days after The Fed admitted "we got it wrong" on the "unequivocally good" low oil prices, BP has joined a long list of energy entities slashing jobs. The oil company will cut 4,000 jobs in exploration and production because of toughening market conditions "we need to take specific steps to ensure our business remains competitive and robust."
As Fed's Williams recently admitted:
A little over a year ago, Paul Hodges was roundly mocked when in December 2014 he made a drastic call that "Oil May Drop To $25 On Chinese Demand Plunge, Supply Glut, Ageing Boomers." After oil got as close as 40 cents away from the dreaded 2-handle, Paul had the last laugh.
But the bigger point is that not only is $20 oil not a shocker any more, it is largely expected and could be indeed welcomed, as first Goldman, then practically everyone else has now admitted it is just a matter of time before oil trades to levels not seen since the 20th century.
The best summary of what happened overnight comes courtesy of Michael Every, head of financial markets research at Rabobank Group in Hong Kong, who was quoted by Bloomberg as follows:
While the government helped boost stocks at least twice last week, according to people familiar with the matter, equities extended declines into the close on Monday. Even if state funds come in to defend the 3,000 level, it may not ultimately work, according to Michael Every, head of financial markets research at Rabobank Group in Hong Kong.