Business

Ever since a few far-sighted, contrarian traders made a killing by betting on the collapse of subprime in 2005 and 2006 - and by implication on the implosion of the capital markets - a trade famously resurrected in the latest Wall Street movie The Big Short (whose Michael Burry recently warned that "The Little Guy Will Pay" For The Next Crisis, again) everyone has been dreaming to uncover the next "subprime" - a trade that has a 20-to-1 upside to downside ratio, which can be put on in massive size, and which would lead to a quick and lucrative retirement.

Until recently healthcare had been the only sector offering any optimism from an earnings perspective but even that has collapsed now. The three-month earnings revision ratio (ERR) fell for the fifth month in a row to 0.53 from 0.55 - its lowest level in nine months, indicating twice as many cuts as increases. As BofAML notes, this is well below the long-term average of 0.84, and given S&P 500 sales revisions have collapsed to April 2009 lows, they forecast more cuts are likely to come... and a muted January effect looms.

Happy New Year Californians - behold the power of monopoly and regulatory capture.

Submitted by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,

“We want our customers and their families to know that we are here to help them make smart energy choices and save money whenever possible,” cooed Laurie Giammona, senior VP and chief customer officer of Pacific Gas and Electric, on Wednesday between Christmas and New Year’s, when no one was supposed to pay attention.

By Simon Jacques

Noble Group’s "Collateral Margin Call"

The downgrade of Noble Group by Moody’s depicts an aggressive financial risk and a vulnerable business risk profile

I) the first-order problem is Macro.

One year ago, when oil was trading in the mid-$50s, and when MarketWatch released an article saying "Now’s time to consider energy stocks: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley" (from December 15), we took the other side and on January 29 we explained why "Either Oil Soars Back To $88, Or Energy Stocks Have To Tumble By Over 40%."