The sell-off in credit over the past week has led many investors to ask what it means for equities. Credit spread widening usually has negative implications for equity but as Goldman notes, it is critical to estimate the degree to which the equity market has already priced the weakness to determine the potential risks to equity going forward.
One word... "glut"
Nattie futures are down 5 days in a row to $1.82... the lowest close since 1999...
Charts: Bloomberg
Submitted by Ben Hunt via Salient Partners' Epsilon Theory blog,
Can everyone saying “a 25 bps rate hike doesn’t change anything” or “manufacturing is a small part of the US economy today, so the ISM number doesn’t mean much” or “trade with China is only a few percent of US GDP, so their currency devaluation isn’t important” just stop?
Seriously. Can you just stop?
There is just one word to describe the thought process of the "smartest guys in the room", those who manage trillions in assets and respond to BofA's monthly Fund Manager Survey: confused.
As BofA's Michael Hartnett summarizes the confusion, while on one hand only 7% expect a "recession" in the coming year...
... expectations for flatter yield curve - that surest leading indicator of a recession - just hit the highest since June of 2011:
Submitted by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,