Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,
The lemmings are now in full stampede toward the cliffs. You can literally hear the cold waters churning, foaming and crashing on the boulders far below.
Over the weekend, we published an analysis from Citigroup looking at how long after the yield curve inverts do investors "have to worry." The results were interesting: as Citi wrote, while sometimes inversion provides a timely signal for the economic cycle a la 2000, "where Professor Curve predicted almost the ding-dong high in the SPX", other times, like the 2006 inversion, dished up 7 months of pain for equity bears, with 18% further upside for the SPX. The same occurred for the 1989 episode where equities continued to rally 22% into the 1990 recession.
Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
As the markets push once again into record territory the question of valuations becomes ever more important. While valuations are a poor timing tool in the short term for investors, in the long run, valuation levels have everything to do with future returns.
Yesterday, Doug Kass penned an interesting note on the current market advance:
As previewed earlier this morning, when the flurry of leaks began, today OPEC reached a deal with non-OPEC partners to extend the oil production cuts until end of 2018 (recall these were supposed to be "temporary" when originally unveiled one year ago) at their meeting in Vienna, as part of producers' strategy to reduce global inventory levels. Below is a summary, via Bloomberg, of the key items agreed on:
For the second day in a row, precious metals are being pounded as gold joins silver back below its 200-day moving-average...
Knocking gold back to 3-week lows...
All of which is odd given the chaos in the dollar... Two days of collapse in gold as the dollar goes nowhere...
And Treasury yields are surging - woith 5Y back at its highest since April 2011...