Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning,
Market crashes often happen not when everyone is worried about them, but when no one is worried about them.
Complacency and overconfidence are good leading indicators of an overvalued market set for a correction or worse. Prominent magazine covers are notorious for declaring a boundless bull market right at the top just before a crash or correction.
Following last month's sharply upward revised jobs report, whose initial negative print of -33,000 was since revised to a positive 18K, there was a sharp jump in October jobs, which while failing to meet consensus estimate of a +310K print, was still a solid +261K. But which jobs contributed the most? The answer, not surprising, is that the single biggest contributor was the same job category which was devastated in the previous month.
Authored by Steve H. Hanke of the Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke.
Last December, the Iranian government of Hassan Rouhani passed a bill to change the name of Iran’s national currency from the rial to the toman. This would require a redenomination in which one zero was lopped off Iran’s unit of account, as 1 toman is equal to 10 rials. Without a change in the monetary and exchange rate regime, the proposed changes amount to a great illusion.
In the hazy and mixed world of 'soft' survey data, October's prints have been 'different'. Manufacturing PMI surged while ISM Manufacturing dropped and now Services PMI has flatlined but ISM Services surged to its highest since Aug 2005.
As good as it gets?
Take your pick...
Under the hood we see that despite the rise in the headline, new orders dropped as did prices and backlogs.
ISM Respondents noted hurricane impacts...
Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog,
The other day I stumbled upon this great tweet from Holger Zschaepitz, the senior editor of the financial desk of the German newspaper, Die Welt.
