Business

Authored by Thorsten Polleit via Mises Canada,

It seems the market wanted moar...

VIX has snapped higher and stocks lower...

With homebuilders crashing... as the tax plan cuts the mortgage deduction in half.

And banks are suffering...

Gold and Bond prices are higher...

Dollar and Bond yields are tumbling...

Moments ago, the GOP released the "talking point" highlights of the republican tax plan which, as previewed earlier this morning, will keep the 20% corporate tax cut as permanent, and which allegedly will assure that a family of 4 making $59,000 will get a $1,182 tax cut.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Jerome Powell will be the next Fed Chair.

Whether or not this is fact is difficult to tell. Neither the White House nor Powell himself has confirmed the news.

However, at the end of the day, who leads the Fed is largely irrelevant. Regardless of your position on Fed policy, math is math. So let’s consider the math.

The US finances its budget via taxes. If taxes don’t cover the budget, the US must issue debt. This has been the game for 40+ years.

If you consider the tactical situation facing the Federal Open Market Committee, two pictures really tell the tale.  First is GDP, FedFunds, 2 year Treasury Notes and 10 year T-bonds, as shown in the chart from FRED.