At the last FOMC meeting - on September 20th - Janet Yellen and her merry band of failed forecasters proclaimed that the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet would be allowed to normalize with reinvestments slowed or stopped in October.
There's just one thing...
The Federal Reserve balance sheet has risen by over $5 billion in October - the biggest monthly rise since February.
The ongoing NFL "kneeling" protests are starting to have a major impact on downstream businesses, and none more so than Papa John's pizza. Earlier this week, the Sports Business Journal reported that Papa John's in-game pizza sales have fallen since President Donald Trump encouraged people to boycott the NFL in late September.
WTI/RBOB held on to gains overnight following major draws reported by API and more OPEC jawboning (this time from UAE), but the DOE data disappointed compared to API's huge draws with Crude and Gasoline drawing down but considerably less than API reported (and Distillates barely drawing down at all).
Bloomberg Intelligence energy analyst Fernando Valle:
Strong demand continues to spur inventory drains. Crude-oil stocks remain elevated, but refined-product inventories are looking increasingly tight.
Authored by Tho Bishop via The Mises Institute,
In the end Donald Trump will get what he wanted, a “low interest rate person” who also happened to be a “Republican.”
Jerome Powell is expected to replace Janet Yellen in an announcement later this week. If so, this means Trump will ensure that, while the stationary at the Eccles Building will change, the monetary policy guiding it likely will not.
Against disappointing China PMIs, US Manufacturing PMI surged back near 2017 highs in October - shrugging off the efects of recent storms, floods, and wildfires - with factory jobs near their best since the financial crisis and gains broadening out to smaller firms too. However, ISM Manufacturing disappointed, falling back from 13 year highs.
So take your pick... is manufacturing momentum picking up (PMI) or fading (ISM)?