Ignoring the bullish ADP report, the yield curve, and especially the 5s30s has collapsed, bear flattening to 82.8bps, the lowest level since November 2007.
The long end leads the gains across the curve, with 30Y yields richer by 1.7bp on the day, breaching 2.86% for first time since Oct. 20; while 5Y yields are cheaper by 1.5bp.
US equity futures have hit a new records, helped by surging Asian and European stocks which have all started November on a euphoric note. Surging commodity prices, optimism about tax reform and hope for a new dovish Fed chair all combined to drive global stock markets to record highs on Wednesday, with the MSCI’s world stock index climbing 0.3% to a fresh all time high. Mining stocks lead gains as nickel and other industrial metals soar.
In our preview of today's FOMC, we said there is virtually no way the Fed could surprise on the hawkish side, especially with Trump set to unveil Jay Powell as the new head of the Fed: after all, the December rate hike is over 80% priced in at this point. But what about the opposite - can the Fed surprise on the dovish side? That, according to Bloomberg macro commentator and former Lehman trader Mark Cudmore is the biggest risk today. As he writes, "growth is solid, but not spectacular. It would be a brave stretch for the committee to upgrade its outlook.
Fintech, blockchain and A.I. are revolutionising the banking industry and have the potential to replace a significant percentage of the human capital, eliminating a chunk of their cost bases. Last month, former Citi CEO, Vikram Pandit, was particularly pessimistic, claiming that 30% of jobs could be lost in the next five years.
As CNBC reports, finance professionals, especially “more experienced” ones, are acutely aware of the risk and are rushing to educate themselves via online learning.
In “Capex complex: Seeking a revival in global capex”, Goldman Sachs is reversing its bearish stance and getting bullish on global capex prospects.
Global capex has hit a trough. After three years of declines, aggregate capex for Goldman Sachs’ coverage of c.2,500 companies is set to grow by c.4% yoy in 2017 according to our analyst estimates, in line with c.4% real growth in global GDP and an 8% rise in aggregate sales. However, to call this the beginning of a recovery in ‘growth capex’ seems premature.