Confirming the shift to a more optimistic worldview by IMF unveiled last week by Christine Lagarde, in its latest World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday, the IMF raised its 2017 and 2018 GDP growth forecast for the U.S., China, euro area and Japan as follows:
While OPEC has been presenting an optimistic facade in recent months, repeating at every opportunity that the global oil market is "rebalancing" and demand is rising, the oil production cartel made a rare slip today when it addressed what should not be named in public: US shale production. Speaking on Tuesday, OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo called on U.S. shale oil producers to help curtail global oil supply, warning extraordinary measures might be needed next year to sustain the rebalanced market in the medium to long term.
S&P futures are again modestly in the green as European shares hold steady ahead of a meeting of the Catalan regional parliament and a possible declaration of independence by Catalan leader Puigdemont, while Asian shares rise a the second day. The dollar declined for the 3rd day, its losses accelerating across the board amid growing concerns that Trump's tax reform is once again dead following the Corker spat and a rejection from Paul Ryan, with the move gaining traction after China set the yuan’s fixing stronger for the first time in seven days.
Having predicted yesterday that the rout in the Turkish Lira is only just starting, and will reverberate among - and sink - other emerging market currencies (so far the USDTRY move has been largely ignored by virtually everyone), today Bloomberg macro strategist Mark Cudmore writes that while he remains bearish the dollar over the long-term, he suggests that the bounce in the dollar is far from over, citing the strong US economy, yield support and all time highs in the market.
The contemporary low volatility trading environment has been kind to actively managed equity funds - particularly if they piled into large-cap momentum stocks like Facebook and Amazon, which have been responsible for the bulk of this year’s rally.