Authored by David Stockman via The Daily Reckoning,
Benjamin Franklin supposedly said, “In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.”
If old Ben were still around he would surely add “debt” to his famous saying. Indeed, a recent Experian study of its 220 million consumer files actually proves the case.
Last week saw US crude production decline by the most since Aug 2016 (perhaps affected by 'Cindy') and given the lagged response to WTI prices, many expected the oil rig count to drop this week. As WTI heads for its 7th up-day in a row - the longest streak in 6 months - it is supported as the US oil rig count dropped 2 to 756, the first drop in almost 6 months.
Authored by Robert Huebscher via AdvisorPerspectives.com,
Robert L. Rodriguez was the former portfolio manager of the small/mid-cap absolute-value strategy (including FPA Capital Fund, Inc.) and the absolute-fixed-income strategy (including FPA New Income, Inc.) and a former managing partner at FPA, a Los Angeles-based asset manager. He retired at the end of 2016, following more than 33 years of service.
Via Global Macro Monitor,
On Tuesday, June 27th, Super Mario said this,
“Deflationary forces have been replaced by reflationary ones.” – Mario Draghi
And here is how global 10-year bond yields reacted,
The German 10-year Bund yield increased 77 percent — OK, from a low base — and bonds across the world from Canada to Australia to the United States were tattooed.
Change In Fundamentals?
Absolutely not!
At the beginning of the year, it was easy to find people discussing the idea that reflation/growth was going to take place in the economy and many positioned portfolios accordingly. Now that we find ourselves at the mid point of the year, we wanted to take a look at an indicator that is pretty good at letting us know how the reflation theme is really doing.
Below is an update on the Treasury Inflation Bond ETF (TIP)/20-year bond (TLT) ratio-