Business

Three months ago, in the aftermath of the Fed's March rate hike we reported on what we thought at the time was a shocking development: instead of tightening, financial conditions eased. Dramatically. So much so, in fact, that Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote about it, saying that the "the Fed's 0.25% rate hike had the same effect as a 0.25% race cut!" and adding that "this was not the reaction the Fed wanted."

In short, Hatzius said that the Fed appeared to have lost control of the market.

A lot changed over the past 4 days, starting with Draghi's unexpectedly hawkish speech earlier this week (subsequent ECB clarification notwithstanding), followed by a barrage of hawkish Fed speakers - including Yellen - all of whom warned that risk assets are overvalued, then the heads of the BOE and BOC, who also came out surprisingly hawkish and warned rates hikes are coming, and finally the conclusion of the ECB's forum in Sintra, where the hawkishness was palpable. In short: coordinated global central bank tightening, or at least jawboning.

There's a clear change in the air as growth stocks are pummeled, bond yields spike, and central bankers wax hawkish.

Here is RBC's head of cross-asset strategy Charlie McElligott to explain what's happening...

The selloff in USTs & duration / concurrent ‘bear steepening’ is further-set to act as an ‘accelerant’ on both my equities ‘rotation’ call and the unwind of the broad ‘slow-flation’ narrative overshoot and its key trade expressions.

One day after Goldman issued a confused, rambling note in which the bank cuts its 3-month WTI price target by $7.50 from $55 to $47.50 saying "Spot WTI oil prices at $43/bbl are now back to November pre-OPEC deal levels, down from $52/bbl just a month ago and vs. our prior 3-mo $55/bbl forecast.

While the public's attention is keenly focused on whether Illinois will reach a budget deal in the next 2 days ahead of the next fiscal year which begins on July 1, avoiding the first ever downgrade to junk for a US state as the state piles up some $15 billion in unpaid bills and now oews more than $800 million in interest on the unpaid balances alone, the financial peril facing Connecticut is just as dire.