China

Here we go again...

Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog,

Many economists suggest China is on the cusp of significant growth in domestic consumer demand. 

That this rising domestic demand coupled with continued growth as the global exporter will push the global economy further.  However, I'll briefly show why neither of these outcomes is remotely likely.

Problem #1- China as Consumer:

One of the traditional push backs against attempts to predict "black swan" events is that they are by default unpredictable, rendering the entire exercise moot. However, for the second year in a row, Nomura's Bilal Hafeez has found a loophole, or rather loop-animal: the grey swan.

President Trump is expected to release the new National Security Strategy for the United States this afternoon. We discussed the potential drivers behing his reportedly aggressive stance yesterday, but the bigger questions remain...

Will it rein in some of the global adventurism of the Bush and Obama presidencies?

 

Will it correct the gaping disconnect between what the White House says about places like North Korea and what the Secretary of State says?

 

Chinese government advisors and a senior military officer warned Beijing that it must be ready for a war on the Korean peninsula, with the risk of conflict higher than ever before, the SCMP reported on Saturday. They also warned that Beijing, once seen as Pyongyang’s biggest ally with influence over its neighbor, was losing control of the situation.