Employment Cost

"Apprehension" - that's how Citi describes trader sentiment as a new week begins, in which the bank points to various event risks over the coming five days. The one markets are focusing on over say, the FOMC on Wednesday, is the political noise coming from Washington. The investigation into Russia’s alleged meddling in the 2016 election is back in focus as President Trumps’ son-in-law testifies, along with Trump Jr and Paul Manafort later in the week. As such, risk sentiment seems apprehensive ahead of the inevitable headlines

ConvergEx's Nicholas Colas asks "Can the US economy get back to the 3% GDP growth it enjoyed in the 1980s – mid 2000s?"

White House economic policy makers say “Yes”.

 

Most professional economists say “No”.

 

History says, “Worker productivity drives economic growth, not politicians or economists.  Fix productivity and you can get to 3%.”

History may not be laconic, but it has a point.

The key economic releases this week are the durable goods report on Thursday and Q1 GDP on Friday.  It iweek is the busiest week of earnings season, with 40%  of S&P 500 equity cap reporting. In addition, there are a few scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week. 

Submitted by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,