FOMC

While the dollar and TSY yields both dropped to session lows shortly after the FOMC announcement hit as traders focused on the Fed disclosure that FOMC voters thought it prudent to await evidence an "economic slowdown is transitory" suggesting the committee still wanted to hike rates but was willing to wait for the certainty of data,  Goldman's disagreed and according to a just released assessment by Goldman's Jan Hatzius, the statement was more hawkish than perceived by the market.

Via MauldinEconomics.com,

The dots that the FOMC members contribute to the plot indicate their expectations for the federal funds rate.

Technically, it’s what they think rates should be, not a prediction of what rates will be on those dates. Is that a forecast? You can call it whatever you like. I think “forecast” is close enough.

But before we analyze the whatever-you-call-it, let’s look back at the not-so-distant past.

A 5% risk-free return

Here’s a rate history of the last 16 years:

"Some of the participants, but not all of the participants, did incorporate some assumption of a change in fiscal policy into their projections. And that may have been a factor that was one of several that occasioned these shifts.  But I want to emphasize that the shifts that you see here are really very tiny."

     - Janet Yellen, December 14, 2016 press conference

US equities are stumbling this morning, giving their bullish terrorism gains, as oil slides and voting FOMC member Jim Bullard appears to raise the spectre of mutiny in the Eccles Building. Speaking on Bloomberg TV, he suggested he wanted to withdraw from the dot-plot forcecasts adding that he believes Fed policy is merely "in reasonably good shape." Finally, following Lockhart and Evans, Bullard also warned that April was "live,' as it appears The Fed wants to talk back some exuberance in the market.

Headlines:

Via Scotiabank's Guy Haselmann,

Rapidly Standing Still