general election

Submitted by Salil Mehta Of Statistical Ideas

The Flip-Flopping Pollster

How poor have the election forecasters been this year?  It is a topic many are discussing given the large number of upsets we've had during the Primaries.  For example, statistician Nate Silver (who started the campaign season proclaiming Trump had <2% chance of being nominated) by March 1 predicted with 94% probability that Trump would win Alaska (he lost). 

Gloucestershire police are investigating allegations of electoral fraud committed by the Conservative Party ahead of the 2015 general election. The Tory party has been accused of violating key spending regulations over claims that they should have declared the cost of bussing in activists to campaign for constituency candidates on local election expenses, rather than on its national return. RT reports: The probe was sparked by a complaint made to Gloucestershire Police, the source of which has not been disclosed.

The race for The White House appears to have taken a backseat for a news cycle as the Republican "veepstakes" gets underway. Donald Trump said this morning that he would prefer a running mate with government experience to "help with pushing legislation through," adding that he puts a 40% chance that a former rival in the Republican race would get the nod.

http://player.cnbc.com/p/gZWlPC/cnbc_global

It is a comparison that many are making.  Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee for president, is very similar to Ronald Reagan, the 40th President of the United States and icon of modern conservatism.  While these two men share some cosmetic similarities on the surface, in reality they are very different in many ways.  Thus, those that are seeking to conclude that a Trump presidency might follow a similar course to that of Reagan’s are likely to discover a much different outcome than they might expect.

Donald Trump may now be the presumed Republican candidate, but the party convention is not scheduled to close until July 21, and there will not be a nominee until then. Two and a half months is an eternity in this 24/7 media environment. There have been 22 contested party conventions since 1876, one lasting 103 ballots. The fat lady has not sung.

The GOP has survived Richard Nixon, Herbert Hoover, Progressive Teddy, and George W. Bush—and it will survive Trump too.