On Monday evening, something strange happened: Donald Trump became a “loser.”
Not in the pejorative sense of the word (as he so often uses the term), but rather in the sense that the GOP front runner who just two days ago surpassed Ted Cruz in Iowa pre-caucus polls for the first time since last August, lost to the Texas senator in the all important Iowa caucuses.
It certainly does feel like groundhog day today because while last week's near record oil surge is long forgotten, and one can debate the impact the result of last night's Iowa primary which saw Trump disappoint to an ascendant Ted Cruz while Hillary and Bernie were practically tied, one thing is certain: today's continued decline in crude, which has seen Brent and WTI both tumble by over 3% has once again pushed global stocks and US equity futures lower, offsetting the euphoria from last night's earnings beat by Google which made Alphabet the largest company in th
Politics is more about organization than raw enthusiasm. Donald Trump was beaten last night by Ted Cruz’s organization in Iowa—and more significantly, they will both be beaten by Marco Rubio’s organization nationally. That’s because Rubio’s organization is not only his campaign but the Republican establishment and conservative movement as well. He can even count on the organized power of the mainstream media aiding him, for while the old media may dislike Republicans in general, they particularly loathe right-wing populist Republicans like Cruz and Trump.
Despite dropping in late polls, Cruz used his superior campaign organization to storm back and take the Iowa caucuses by a decent margin. If a Cruz win seems somewhat anticlimactic at this point, that’s only because he had been doing very well in the state for several weeks until his slump in late January. Trump’s equally unimpressive ground game left him with the second-place finish that he was poised to have a couple weeks ago, and that happened in spite of a huge increase in turnout that was supposed to help him.
Update: The first votes are starting to trickle in and with Ted Cruz and Trump jockeying for the top spot. Clinton is still leading Sanders, although the race is close, as expected.
Update: As shown below, turnout is topping all expectations on both the Democratic and Republican sides. That should bode well for Trump and perhaps for Sanders, although the number of first time caucus goers is apparently lower than the Sanders campaign would have liked.