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Iowa

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How Iowa Can Change New Hampshire

Since I first came to New Hampshire 19 days ago, the polls have been fairly steady. Donald Trump has held a two digit lead, in some surveys as much as 20 points. Ted Cruz has often been in second, and the four candidates in the so-called “establishment” lane—Bush, Kasich, Rubio, and Christie—have bunched together at between 8 and 14 percent. There are two outlier results: In the ARG survey about two weeks ago John Kasich surged to a clear second place, with about 20 percent, and fell back to 17 last week. In the Emerson poll released last Wednesday, Jeb Bush rose to second, at 18 percent.

Previewing the Seventh Republican Debate

FoxNews will be hosting the next Republican debate tonight at 9:00 p.m. Eastern. As everyone knows by now, the debate will be unusual in that the current front-runner won’t participate, and will instead have his own event of some sort scheduled at the same time. That almost certainly means that the debate audience will shrink by quite a lot, which is why FoxNews has been so desperate to get Trump to reconsider. Trump’s absence won’t just shrink the audience, but it will also make the debate a less consequential event just a few days ahead of the Iowa caucuses.

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