Labor

The NFIB Small Business Optimism survey hit this morning and it surged to near record highs...

With Small Businesses having never been so excited to hire people ever...

Construction, manufacturing and professional services registered notable increases in planned hiring. The figures indicate the recent solid pace of job growth will be sustained and help extend the economic expansion.

And, of course, President Trump was over the moon...

After a burst of record high job openings which started in June and eased modestly in August, today's October JOLTS report  - Janet Yellen's favorite labor market indicator - showed a sharp drop in job openings across most categories now that hurricane distortions have cleared out of the system, with the total number dropping from 6.177MM to 5.996MM, well below the 6.135MM estimate, the biggest monthly drop and the lowest job openings number since May, resulting in an October job opening rate of 3.9% vs 4% in Sept.

Casual dining investors, despite the retail route, have become increasingly optimistic over the past month and a half with several of the largest names in the industry rallying 15-20% into the holiday season. 

Assuming that the BLS' estimate of avg hourly warnings growing only 0.2% in November is accurate, it would imply that - as has often been the case - the bulk of job growth in November took place in minimum-paying and other low-wage jobs. However, a breakdown of jobs added by industry shows the contrary to expectations, the bulk of new job creation, and 3 of the 4 top category, were not in the "low wage" bucket.

In a continuation of the recent theme shown by the labor market, the BLS reported that November payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 228K, beating expectations of 200K, if lower than October's downward revised 244K (from 261K) while September was revised up from +18,000  to +38,000. With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 3,000 more than  previously reported.