Micex

November 8 will mark the one year anniversary of one of the biggest political shocks in US history: the election of Donald Trump. Since that improbable victory, which so many experts had said would lead to a market crash, the S&P 500 has soared by 21% according to Goldman which calculates that the Trump rally so far ranks as the fourth-best 12-month gain following a presidential election since 1936, trailing only Bill Clinton (1996, 32%), John F. Kennedy (1960, 29%), and George H.W. Bush (1988, 23%).

As we pointed out yesterday, October 9 was a landmark day: it marked 10 years to the day since the pre-Global Financial Crisis peak in the S&P 500. How have various asset classes performed since then? That is the question that DB's Jim Reid set off to answer this morning in his latest edition of the "Early Morning Reid."

S&P futures are again modestly in the green as European shares hold steady ahead of a meeting of the Catalan regional parliament and a possible declaration of independence by Catalan leader Puigdemont, while Asian shares rise a the second day. The dollar declined for the 3rd day, its losses accelerating across the board amid growing concerns that Trump's tax reform is once again dead following the Corker spat and a rejection from Paul Ryan, with the move gaining traction after China set the yuan’s fixing stronger for the first time in seven days.

The first half of the year may have been forgettable for a majority of the smart money and hedge funds, with nearly 80% once again underperformingttheir benchmarks due to months of P&L crushing short squeezes, but it was a buoyant time for equity markets and virtually all asset classes, for one simple reason: a record central bank liquidity injection of over $1.5 trillion YTD.

For eight straight week after President Trump was elected, global investors fell over themselves to buy Russian stocks, driving the MICEX index to record highs. However, the constant Russian headlines climaxing in the last two weeks of chaos has seen Russian stocks collapse - erasing all of the post-election gains and more.

However, as is clear from the chart above, while Russian stocks are languishing at 8 month lows; Russian credit risk remains near 3 year lows.