The Russian Central Bank surprised markets when it unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 bps to 9.75% (30 economists expected no change, 8 predicted a 25 bps cut), its first rate cut in four meetings or 7 months, as inflation, which has dropped from a peak of 17% to just 4.6% last month, appears to be under control, while growth is returning to the oil-dominated economy driven by the steady price of oil.
With most global market closed for Christmas holiday, and traders taking the day and the week off, global stocks traded mixed in thin, subdued conditions as the dollar dipped against the yen, with the USDJPY sliding for a fourth straight day to 117, while the EUR was flat at 1.0450, taking stock of the US 10Y yield which closed lower on Friday.
In years to come markets may well look back at the month just passed as one of the most pivotal in recent memory, at least that's the assessment of DB's Jim Reid. The US election result just over 3 weeks ago sparked a huge divergence across asset classes and also between developed and emerging markets. In fact you could probably start this performance review from November 8th as assets were generally little changed in the first week and a bit leading into the election.
While there was no unexpected overnight central bank announcement unlike yesterday's surprise by the RBA which unleashed volatility havoc in the FX market, which promptly spilled over into all asset classes, overnight stocks around the world saw another leg lower without a tangible catalyst, while EM currencies fell to a one-month low after two Fed presidents raised concern investors had become too complacent in their belief that U.S. interest rate raises will stay on hold.
As most financial media will remind you, today is the 7 year anniversary of the market's lows hit on March 9, 2009, a day when the Wall Street Journal wondered "How low can stocks go", which took less than a week after Obama said on March 3 that "what you're now seeing is profit-and-earning ratios are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal if you've got a long-term perspective on it" (sic) and just days before the Fed officially launched its expanded QE1 asset purchasing program.