Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries

With the OPEC meeting having started a little under two hours ago, it appears that the premature optimism raised yesterday about yet another imminent production freeze deal may have been mostly hot air. Indeed, yesterday's bounceback in oil was driven by the various reports of a potential reintroduction of a ceiling on production after the previous ceiling was scrapped in December. The WSJ ran a story suggesting that the willingness is shared by Saudi Arabia as well as smaller producers in Nigeria, Qatar, Algeria and Venezuela.

There are just two drivers setting the pace for today's risk mood: the OPEC meeting in Vienna which started a few hours ago, and the ECB's announcement as well as Mario Draghi's press statement due out just one hour from now. Both are expected to not reveal any major surprises, with OPEC almost certainly unable to implement a production freeze while the ECB is expected to remain on hold and provide some more details on its corporate bond buying program, although there is some modest risk of upside surprise in either case.

Submitted by Nick Cunningham of OilPrice.com

Is OPEC About To Surprise The Oil markets?

A day before the OPEC summit kicks off, top officials from the oil cartel say that the markets are moving in the right direction, a sign of confidence that suggests little could emerge from this week’s meeting.

Earlier today, when Reuters quoted "sources" that OPEC may consider a new oil output ceiling, a recurring headline meant simply to spark algo-driven buying (which it did), we said that the "most likely next step: a denial from other "sources." That is precisely what happened moments ago when with hours until the OPEC meeting in Vienna, the UAE oil minister Suhail bin Mohammed al-Mazroui repeated what he has said only yesterday when he said he was happy with the oil market, and confirmed there will be no unanimous oil freeze.

As if by magic, a boring Beige Book was all the algos needed to slam VIX and lift stocks to the magical unicorn level of 2,100 for the S&P 500... Because why not dump protection ahead of OPEC, ECB, and Payrolls - makes perfect sense really...Sadly, the machines just couldn;' hold it there for the close

Simply put, today's ubiquitous V-shape recovery in stocks is yet another example of the only way to win...