As noted earlier, following Macron's victory the reaction in key FX crosses and pairs has been very subdued, suggesting today's outcome was no surprise to traders at least in terms of technical positioning. Another reason why "the news may be getting sold" is that as Deutsche Bank and various other sellsiders suggested, another near-term hurdle looms in just a few weeks time with the French parliamentary elections.
Emmanuel Macron has won the presidency of France, and markets can heave a sigh of relief. The key question for traders is what comes next.
As Bloomberg's Cameron Crise notes, markets have cheered Macron’s victory not for who he is, but rather because of who he is not. That is a fairly slender thread on which to hang a case for a secular reversal in the euro.
According to the French interior ministry some 28.54% of registered voters have cast their votes in the presidential election by 12:00 a.m. local time (1000 GMT) on Sunday, a lower than expected initial turnout and the lowest at this stage of the day since the 2002 presidential poll, when it was 26.19%. Prior midday turnouts were 30.66% and 34.11% in 2012 and 2007, respectively. A final turnout of 75% is expected at this election; the eventual turnouts in 2002, 2007 and 2012 were all above 80 percent.
Venerable French investor Charles Gave has been managing money and researching markets for over 40 years; as such France’s elder statesman of asset allocation perhaps best captures the mood ahead of the most crucial Presidential election in a generation. In conversation with Dr. Pippa Malmgren, Charles breaks down national politics to understand why voters have rejected the establishment and the market impact of both outcomes, and what to expect from tomorrow's election.
After numerous media appearances, Macron and Le Pen are facing each other in a TV debate tonight, which Barclays' analyst Francois Cabau dubs "Crucial."
According to Barclays, this debate is key for two main reasons: 1) it will allow Le Pen to clarify her views on Europe (that she has tried to soften to a large extent recently in an apparent move to attract Fillon's voters) which are arguably a weak point on her side; and 2) it may be seen to, informally, mark the start of the campaign for the legislative elections.
Some further thoughts from Barclays: