presidential election

Analyzing intraday time series in various markets is a familiar strategy, and has usually been applied to markets which have liquidity 24 hours of the day, such as FX. A good recent example was Deutsche's report on "How To Make Money Trading FX? Just Wake Up At 3AM." And while such regional time-series comps have been mostly conducted with currencies, over the weekend Morgan Stanley's Matthew Hornbach did a similar analysis with rates.

What he found was startling.

Warning that a "soft coup" is being waged against Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he sees attempts in the United States to "delegitimize" US President-elect Donald Trump using "Maidan-style" methods previously used in Ukraine, where readers will recall president Yanukovich was ousted in 2014 following a violent coup, which many suspect was conducted under the auspices of the US State Department and assorted US intelligence operations.

As media attention is focused on allegations of election tampering by Russia, one thing is for sure, Goldman Sachs got its man into the White house and guaranteed itself a meal ticket. The mother of all banks, Goldman Sachs, hedges its bets to get the best possible outcome so it stays alive and prospers. In the case of US presidential elections, the zombie bank always manages to pick the winner among the usual two candidates and somehow always comes out on top.

This article by David Haggith was first published on The Great Recession Blog:

Submitted by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Conventional wisdom suggests National Front candidate Marine le Pen will make it to the second round in French elections, then lose in a landslide to whoever her opponent happens to be.

I believe le Pen’s odds of winning it outright are far better than most think.

Current Polls

Chart from Wikipedia, with image clips added.

Top Five candidates