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How Did Nate Silver (And Everyone Else) Get Trump So Wrong: The Flip-Flopping Polster

How Did Nate Silver (And Everyone Else) Get Trump So Wrong: The Flip-Flopping Polster

Submitted by Salil Mehta Of Statistical Ideas

The Flip-Flopping Pollster

How poor have the election forecasters been this year?  It is a topic many are discussing given the large number of upsets we've had during the Primaries.  For example, statistician Nate Silver (who started the campaign season proclaiming Trump had <2% chance of being nominated) by March 1 predicted with 94% probability that Trump would win Alaska (he lost).