S&P futures were little changed at 2,425, ignoring the N.Korea tensions of the past two days which will likely be a major topic in the upcoming G-20 summit, as European stocks fluctuate and Asian markets advance. Crude oil fell, snapping the longest winning streak this year, as Russia said it opposed any proposal to deepen OPEC-led production cuts.
In his latest note, Citi's Jeremy Hale shows something troubling to all those, such as Bloomberg, who point to yesterday's ISM manufacturing sentiment indicator (while ignoring the rapidly slowing PMI) as indication of more upside left in the economy: according to the Citi cross-asset strategist the bank's NISI Index (news implied sentiment indicator, Figure 1), has plunged sharply into bearish territory in the latest print, to its lowest level in 18 months, since January 2016.
The first half of the year may have been forgettable for a majority of the smart money and hedge funds, with nearly 80% once again underperformingttheir benchmarks due to months of P&L crushing short squeezes, but it was a buoyant time for equity markets and virtually all asset classes, for one simple reason: a record central bank liquidity injection of over $1.5 trillion YTD.
With the US out on holiday for the 4th of July, overnight trading volumes have been muted, as Europe started off in the red but has since trimmed most losses (Stoxx 600 -0.1%) while S&P500 futures rose shaprly from session lows spurred by the European open ignoring the risk-off sentiment from North Korea's latest missile launch, trading 0.2% higher, or up 4 points to 2,429 and closing the gap to Monday's last minute tech-driven market selloff.
After several months of low volatility across assets since mid-2016, particularly in equities, markets were more volatile last week owing to fears of central bank tightening. Volatility picked up first in FX and rates, and then spilled over to equities. However, as Goldman notes, this might not be the end of the low vol regime yet.
Via Goldman Sachs,