S&P 500

As credit and equity markets continue to grind higher with monotonous regularity, as bloviators fret about politics and analysts await clarity on monetary and fiscal policy, Bloomberg's Cameron 'macroman' Crise is worried that "this might be as good as it gets for US investors."

As Crise explains, one of his favorite metrics is one-year trailing return to volatility ratios in major markets, which mean-revert and thus can provide early warning signals for when things get extended.

The global "risk on" melt-up continues.

After a modestly hawkish Yellen warned that every meeting is live, and refused to take March off the table, sending the dollar and yield higher and the S&P to fresh record highs, world stocks rose hitting a 21-month high on Wednesday with the dollar rising for the 11th straight day, the longest positive streak since July 2015.

Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr,

The Nasdaq 100 rally is arguably extended now, based on the utilization of this charting analysis.

European, Asian stocks declined, halting a global rally that sent U.S. stocks surging to new all time highs faltered, weighing on the S&P although the index rebounded modestly after a kneejerk announcement lower overnight after Trump's National Security Advisor announced his unexpected resignation.

Reflation trade bitches...between Yellen tomorrow (hawkish), China end of reverse repo drought, Trump "phenomenal" taxes, and expectations for a hot CPI on Wednesday - everything is awesomely inflationary.