S&P 500

Last week, one day before the Fed unleashed a statement that stunned Wall Street by its dovishness and admission that the Fed had been far too optimistic on the state of the US (and global) economy, when it slashed its forecast on the number of rate hikes from 4 to 2, we said that "while everyone's attention is on the Fed, the biggest danger to the S&P500 has little to do with what Janet Yellen may say tomorrow, and everything to do with the marginal buyer of stocks being put into a state of forced hibernation", namely the start of the stock buyback blackout period during Q1 earnings se

Submitted by Ben Hunt via Salient Partner's Epsilon Theory blog,

Five Easy Pieces for the World-As-It-Is

Our story so far...

In a market overtaken by central bankers, where fundamentals don't work (or work inversely because the worse the data, the greater the central bank stimulus and/or jawboning) traders are flying blind and hoping that at least technicals can provide some information.

Courtesy of BofA's chief technician, Stephen Suttmeier, below is a summary of what the latest charts say, and why he believes that the "overbought", "complacent" market has support around 2018-2002 and resistance is at 2075-2085.

SPX extends overbought grind higher

 

One week ago, despite the ECB's last ditch attempt to reflate the bond market by monetizing corporate bonds in hopes this spills over into stocks (via buybacks) and and broad inflation, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett was adamant: "sell the rally." He wasn't the only one: just a day earlier, after the market's violent kneejerk reaction lower to the ECB's (apparent) unwillingness to push rates even lower, Evercore ISI's chief technician, Rich Ross said "I'm Out. My Bullish tactical call is over."

It may be option expiration day (always leading to abnormal market activity) but it remains all about the weak dollar, which after crashing in the two days after the Fed's surprisingly dovish statement has put both the ECB and the BOJ in the very awkward position that shortly after both banks have drastically eased, the Euro and the Yen are now trading stronger relative to the dollar versus prior.