Short positions in oil exchange-traded funds surged to stunningly extreme record levels (up 300% in a month) in Janaury as crude oil plummeted. Since January 20th, however, things have changed rapidly as a massive short-squeeze began...
(axes adjusted to show relative scale of short position)
Now, as UBS notes,
Via ConvergEx's Nicholas Colas,
With yesterday’s impressive equity rally, every trader is asking the same question: “Can U.S. equities go green on the year?” The S&P 500 is now down “just” 3.2% in 2016 and there’s nothing like a +2% one-day rally to hold out hope of actual gains before March 31.
After the recent sharp spike higher in the S&P which has pushed it 150 points off its lows, the market may be down 3% since the beginning of the year. However, while many have blamed the 2016 selloff and subsequent rebound on central bank policy confusion, what many are forgetting is that a key factor pushing stocks lower are corporate earnings. And, as JPM reminds us, even with stocks 3% lower for the year, the overall market is more expensive now than it was at the start of the year.
Following yesterday's torrid 2.4% March opening rally, which resulted in the biggest S&P gain since January and the best first day of March in history on what was initially seen as very bad news, and then reinterpreted as great news, overnight futures have taken a breather, and erased a modest overnight continuation rally to track the price of oil lower.
We have previously documented how, with the fourth quarter earnings season almost completed, Q4 EPS are poised to drop by 3.3% Y/Y, making this the third consecutive quarter of declining year over year earnings, in other words an earnings recession and a half.