steel

Back in 2014, a scandal erupted when media reports confirmed what many had previously speculated about China's banking system: namely that much of China's staggering loan issuance had been built (literally) upon air and that trillions in loan collateral had been "rehypothecated" between two, three or many more debtors - or never even existed - forcing banks to accept that they would never recover much if any of the pledged collateral - in most cases various commodities - if the economy were to suffer a hard-landing resulting in mass defaults.

While the long-term consequences of Trump's first trade war salvo launched today will become obvious only in hindsight, it may have come at an opportune moment: just as China prepares to flood the world with record amounts of steel. Overnight, the National Statistics Bureau reported that even as Beijing intensified its war on smog, local steel output "paradoxically" hit a new monthly record in July, some 74.02 million tonnes, up 10% Y/Y (or 50% more than China's GDP) and higher than the previous record of 73.23 million tonnes set in June.

Back in 2014, a scandal erupted when media reports confirmed what many had previously speculated about China's banking system: namely that much of China's staggering loan issuance had been built (literally) upon air and that billions (or trillions) in loan collateral had been "rehypothecated" between two, three or many more debtors - or never even existed - forcing banks to accept that they would never recover much if any of the pledged collateral - in most cases various commodities - if the economy were to suffer a hard-landing resulting in mass defaults.

During this morning's U.S. Steel earnings conference call,  CEO Mario Longhi said he was optimistic that tubular steel had bottomed and that  trade issues were improving thanks to tighter controls by US regulators to make sure Chinese companies weren't circumventing the law and dumping government subsidized steel on American shores.

Submitted by Pater Tenebrarum via Acting-Man.com,

Victims of the Boom-Bust Cycle

The world is drowning in steel – there is huge overcapacity in steel production worldwide. This is a direct result of the massive global credit expansion that has taken place over the past 15 years. Much of this capacity is located in China, but while the times were good, iron ore and steel production (and associated lines of production) was expanded everywhere else in the world as well.

Steel factory