For Albert Edwards, This Is The "One Failsafe Indicator" Of An Inevitable Recession
When trying to time the next US recession, most economists - as one would expect - look at economic data. The problem with such "data" as last year's farcical double seasonal GDP adjustments have shown, is that if the government is intent on putting lipstick on the pig that is US GDP, it will do just that over and over, unleashing non-GAAP GDP if it must, to avoid revealing the truth until it is prepared to do so.