United States

By now, not even CNBC's cheerleading permabulls can deny that the US is in a manufacturing recession: in fact, it is so bad that even the staunchest defenders of Keynesian dogma admit what we said in late 2014, namely that crashing oil is bad for the economy.

And yet, the "services" part of the US economy continues to hum right along, leading to such surprising outcomes as a stronger than expected print in Personal Consumption Expenditures. How can this be?

And so the final quarter of 2015 is in the history books and we can officially accuse the US Bureau of Economic Analysis of "peddling fiction" about the US recovery, because at a growth rate of 0.69%, the annualized rate of economic growth was the lowest since the first quarter of 2015 when it grew an almost identical 0.64% which was blamed on the harsh weather. This time however, there is no easy scapegoat.

The breakdown was as follows:

• World shares heat up as Bank of Japan goes sub-zero (Reuters)
• Stocks Rally With Bonds as BOJ Ends Grim January on High Note (BBG)
• Japan Follows Europe Into Negative Interest Rate Territory (WSJ)
• Decision On Oil Cut Only Possible If All Exporters Agree, Russian Energy Minister Says (BBG)
• Trump overshadows Republican debate even as he sits it out (Reuters)
• Trump skips debate, wins on social media (Reuters)
• January Is Turning Out to Be the Kindest Month for Treasuries (BBG)

It is safe to say that nobody expected the BOJ stunner announced last night, when Kuroda announced that Japan would become the latest country to unleash negative interest rates, for one simple reason: Kuroda himself said Japan would not adopt negative rates just one week ago! However, a few BIS conference calls since then clearly changed the Japanese central banker's mind and as we wrote, and as those who are just waking up are shocked to learn, negative rates are now a reality in Japan.

A U.S. official has confirmed that North Korea may have tested components of a hydrogen bomb on January 6, after reviewing intelligence of the operation.  The unnamed official says there was a partial test of a hydrogen bomb, despite claims to the contrary by Western media outlets. CNN.com reports: Immediately following the test earlier this month, White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest said the initial analysis that have been conducted was “not consistent” with a successful hydrogen bomb test. The U.S.