United States

While many US companies, especially those in the Russell 2000, have seen their stocks surge in recent days on renewed hopes that Trump tax reform may pass in the coming months (Goldman assigned a 65% probability of Trump tax passing), the reality is that for a vast majority of US corporations a tax cut to 30% or even 25% will have little marginal impact: after all, while US companies may have some the highest statutory tax rate in the world...

... the effective tax rate of the median S&P 500 company is 12% below the statutory rate, or roughly 27%:

Looks like Russian President Vladimir Putin is back at it.

The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that hackers working for the Russian government have stolen data describing how US intelligence agencies infiltrate foreign computer networks and how they defend against cyberattacks. The data were stolen after a National Security Agency contractor removed the highly classified material and put it on his home computer, according to WSJ’s anonymous sources.

In the months leading up to the November 2016 election, Trump repeatedly referred to Obama's secretive Iran Nuclear deal as "the worst deal I've ever seen negotiated" (here's just one example).  Of course, for a man who only speaks in absolutes, it's difficult to know what that meant for the fate of the deal but it didn't sound positive, nonetheless.

Over the past two months, China, North Korea’s economic benefactor and formally the source of 90% of its foreign trade, has been withdrawing financial support, ostensibly under the auspices of US sanctions, as Communist Party leaders try to rein in the North’s nuclear program to appease the US and prevent a potentially destabilizing conflict on its border – a development that would be particularly unwelcome during the Communist Party’s upcoming national congress.

Global markets came off record highs, trading subdued, with US index futures unchanged as traders are unwilling to make major moves ahead of today's ECB minutes and tomorrow’s NFP release, and before speeches by central bankers including SF Fed President John Williams and the potential next Fed chair Jerome Powell, as well as ECB executive board members Peter Praet and Benoit Coeure.