Authored by John Mauldin via MauldinEconomics.com,
If the average person in the US feels as though they are going nowhere fast, there is a real reason for it.
Federal Reserve data shows people are earning less than they did 17 years ago. But the real story is even worse than that.
Having turned over the past few months from reflationist, to increasingly skeptical of the whole reflation impulse scenario - mostly on the back of China's infamous credit impulse crashing - RBC's Charlie McElligott takes a look at the three "negative narratives" that are gradually emerging for the markets. But before listing them, here is his latest summary of where the increasingly more confused market finds itself:
From "The Battle Of Who Could Care Less" by Charlie McElligott
Having gone all-in on a Hillary Clinton victory ahead of the elections, Saudi Arabia has quickly pivoted in its "appreciation" of the Trump administration, and having realized that the fastest way to Trump's heart is through the US Treasury's bank account, it is preparing to invest an "unprecedented" amount of money in the US. According to Bloomberg, the Kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund will announce plans to "deploy as much as $40 billion into U.S. infrastructure." The investment will likely be unveiled as early as next week when Trump is scheduled to visit the kingdom.
The “Trump trade” in U.S. stocks that was spurred by President Donald Trump’s November election has come and gone, according to Tony Dwyer, Canaccord Genuity Group Inc.’s chief market strategist.
The U.S. has recorded a trade deficit in every year since 1975. This is not surprising — America spends more than it saves. So, it must run a trade deficit, and this deficit is financed by means of a virtually unlimited U.S. line of credit with the rest of the world. Economies that save more than they spend and record corresponding trade surpluses ship funds to the U.S. to finance America’s insatiable spending.