US Federal Reserve

According to Deutsche Bank's Aleksandar Kocic, we live in a reflexive world, one where "the Fed knows that the market knows and the market knows that the Fed knows that the market knows, so everyone knows, but pretends that nobody knows and the game goes on." That pretty much covers much of modern market analysis which, like some mutant version of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle, implies that it is impossible to know the value of assets without also taking into account what the Fed thinks about said value, and what it will do in response to the valuation manifesting itself in

Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com,

Many of you know I keep posting charts keeping taps on the macro picture in the Macro Corner.

It’s actually an interesting exercise watching what they do versus what they say. Public narratives versus reality on the ground.

I know there’s a lot of talk of global synchronized expansion. I call synchronized bullshit.

Authored by Hal Snarr via The Mises Institute,

The Federal Reserve’s latest Survey of Consumer Finances, according to Federal Reserve Governor Brainard, shows that the share of income held by the top 1 percent of households has risen from 17 percent in 1988 to 24 percent in 2015, and that the wealth held by that same group rose from 30 percent in 1989 to 39 percent in 2016.

Having identified virtually every single asset bubble of the current cycle (as well as a few extra), SocGen's cranky strategist Albert Edwards has found yet another place where there is irrational exuberance: vacations, and ever the optimist, Edwards has a message for Americans: enjoy it while you can, because it won't last.  In a note titled "Who needs wage inflation when even vacations have become a bubble" , the SocGen strategist observes that "more Americans plan to take a holiday in the next six months than ever before (see chart below)" and complains

Earlier in 2017, using the latest Fed data newspapers and financial media reported that US consumer credit card debt had risen above $1 trillion for the first time since the financial crisis.