US Federal Reserve

In our comprehensive review of the GOP tax bill which was scheduled to be unveiled tomorrow, we noted the following key caveat  "There are a lot of unknowns in this process, the biggest of which - of course - is whether the bill will be delayed from its scheduled Wednesday appearance." In retrospect, and in light of the conflicting reports about what may be contained in the final draft of the bill, this has proved prophetic because moments ago, Axios reported that week's 2nd biggest events - after Trump's announcement of Jay Powell as the next Fed chair - the release of the Republi

Via LPLResearch.com,

President Trump is reportedly set to announce his selection for the next Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the very near future, with Jerome Powell emerging as the likely nominee.

Though he’s yet to make a final decision, reports suggest that a final decision will come before November 3.

Warren Buffet famously proposed the analogy of a machine that produces one dollar per year in perpetuity. He asks how much would you pay for this machine? Clearly it is worth something more than $1.00. And it’s equally clear that it’s not worth $1,000. The value is somewhere in between. But where?

With a full slate of central bank meetings, data (including payrolls Friday) and earnings next week there’s a little bit for everyone. On Thursday, according to Politico, we will also know who the next Fed Chair is as well as get a first look at a version of the House tax bill in the US, perhaps on Wednesday.

Two weeks ago, Deutsche Bank's credit analyst Aleksandar Kocic explained that with the yield curve becoming increasingly flatter, the Fed has roughly two more rate hikes left before it loses control as the curve first flattens completely and eventually inverts, a precursor to virtually every historical recession. As the DB strategist explained, given where long rates are the "Fed appears overly hawkish – it has only two more hikes to go and, for volatility and risk premia to reprice higher, the gap has to widen.