While China has been banging the nationalist drums in its government-owned tabloids, warning daily of the adverse consequences to the US from either a trade war, or from Trump's violating the "One China" policy, a more tangible concern for deteriorating relations between China and the US is that Trump could, and most likely will, brand China a currency manipulator shortly after taking over the the Oval Office.
Global markets begin the last full week of trading of the year in subdued fashion, with U.S. equity futures rising 0.1%, to 2,258.5, European shares decline halting two straight weeks of gains, and Asian shares hitting a four-week low. The Dollar extends losses, yen and gold rise amid geopolitical concerns as the fallout from China's seizure of a U.S. continues to reverberate. Volumes are thinning before the December holiday season and end of the year, with trading in German bund futures about half the average for the past five days.
The global bond rout returned with a bang, sending 10Y US Treasury yields as much as six basis points higher to 2.53%, the highest level in over two years. The selloff happened as oil prices surged by more than 5% following Saturday's agreement by NOPEC nations agreed to slash production, leading to rising inflation pressures. At last check, the 10Y was trading at 2.505%, up from 2.462% at Friday and on track for its highest close since September 2014, according to Tradeweb.
Having been on the fence about an upside case for the S&P for the greater part of 2016, Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin finally threw in the towel earlier this week when, as we reported, Goldman raised its S&P price target from 2,100 (as of year end 2016) to 2,400 for mid-year 2017 on what it calls "Trump Hope" (as apparently does everyone else, see "The World Has Changed" - Average S&P Target Before Trump: 2,087; After Trump: 2,425"), which it then sees dipping to 2,300 by year-end 2017 on "Trump Fear."
Barely having confirmed he will be Donald Trump's nominee for Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin proceeded to roil the bond market when the former Goldman banker told CNBC he would look at extending the maturity of future Treasury issuance, hinting at 50 and 100 Year bonds, which promptly sent long-term US bond yields surging by the most since the turmoil following Trump’s election victory.