US Treasury

The “Kremlin list” Is a Bullet Aimed at Putin’s Heart

Paul Craig Roberts

The Russian government, media, and public don’t know what to make of the US Treasury’s “Kremlim list.” The Treasury list contains the names of the top echelon of Russian government and business leadership. The Russians understand that the list is unfriendly and furthers Washington’s policy of worsening the relationship between the two major nuclear powers, but beyond that the list seems to be a mystery to them.

First, the facts:

At Powell's Nov 28th 2017 testimony to Congress, Powell said that as the Fed allows its 4 trillion dollar balance sheet to wind down, the US Treasury would issue new bonds to the market to replace them (so, technically, US notional debt will neither increase nor decrease as a result of QE).

E-mini futures are modestly in the green this morning, though net of fair value the S&P index is poised for another record high open as the FOMC begins its last meeting for 2017 in which it is expected to raise rates by 25bps. European stocks gain while Asian equities slide led by weakness in Chinese airplane stocks.

One week ago, in its latest assessment of the current state of tax reform in the aftermath of the Senate's passage of the tax bill, Goldman analysts calculated that while growth impact from tax reform had increased fractionally to around 0.3% in 2018 and 2019 "reflecting the slightly larger amount of tax cuts in the Senate plan following revisions, and our expectations regarding the eventual compromise", it expected a very modest - if any - boost to US economic growth from tax reform.

A 'funny' thing happened a month ago. The Treasury yield curve suddenly started to collapse... despite gains in stocks and positive economi data surprises... the question is, why?

Here's one possible reason why..

Originally submitted by GovTrader,

TL/DR: Tax reform creates pension fund incentive to buy 30yr bonds NOW.