Charted: What’s Driving the U.S. Trade Deficit?

How Manufactured Goods Dominate the U.S. Trade Deficit

The United States has had many major trading partners over the decades, with annual imports and exports from them both totaling trillions of dollars.

Ever since the 1970s, the country’s imports started to overshadow exports and the U.S. trade deficit began to grow. Once the 1990s began, fueled by globalization-friendly policies around the world and cheap international goods, the trade deficit began to climb even more rapidly.

In this graphic, Ehsan Soltani uses data from the World Trade Organization to highlight the role of manufactured goods in the rising U.S. trade deficit over the last three decades.

U.S. Trade Deficit in Goods From 1990 to 2022

In 2022, the U.S. trade deficit for goods hit $1.31 trillion, consisting of more than $3 trillion in imports and offset by $2 trillion in exports. That’s a growth of 40% over a decade from a deficit $791 billion in 2012.

When compared to trade numbers from the early 1990s and 2000s, its clear how much U.S. trade as a whole has grown.

In 1992, the U.S. trade deficit for goods sat at only $106 billion, with imports totaling $554 billion and exports totaling $448 billion. Just a decade later by 2002, the deficit had already climbed by five times.

Manufactured Goods Trade Outshines Fuel

Analyzing the subtleties in the country’s deficit in traded goods also shows how U.S. reliance on other countries has changed over the years.

In 1990, the deficit incurred from trading manufactured goods—which doesn’t include fuel, mining production, agricultural products, or services—contributed to 69% of the total U.S. goods trade deficit.

Since then, despite the country exporting billions of dollars of products, the deficit caused by imported manufactured goods has only grown. In 2021, it crossed $1 trillion in deficit alone.

Part of that growth is directly tied to increasing imports from China over the 21st century. From 2001 to 2018, China’s exports to the U.S. accounted for 59% of the latter’s increasing manufacturing trade deficit, ranging in goods from electronics to machinery.

However, the U.S. managed to recover some of this deficit through surplus fuel exports, which have been increasing over the same time period.

Historically the U.S. was a larger fuel consumer than producer, and was heavily affected by soaring oil prices from 2003 to the Great Recession. In 2008, the United States trade deficit in fuel hit $425 billion.

But a boom in shale oil production has seen the country rapidly increase production and exports, becoming the world’s largest crude oil producer. Despite falling oil prices, by 2020 the U.S. managed to erase its fuel trade deficit.

Will The U.S. Trade Deficit Keep Growing?

The dominance of manufactured goods in the U.S. trade deficit poses a significant challenge for policymakers and businesses.

On one hand, the country’s reliance on other countries for cheaper parts and labor has allowed its economy to benefit. But it has also become increasingly susceptible to tariffs, slowdowns in other countries, and trade wars.

While there are efforts in place to promote domestic manufacturing, such as in semiconductor chips, the effects have yet to dent the goods trade deficit.

The post Charted: What’s Driving the U.S. Trade Deficit? appeared first on Visual Capitalist.