In the new bifurcated normal US economy, with the manufacturing sector unofficially in recession, it has been the growth of the services sector, and, as we detailed here, implicitly the surge in "bartenders & waiters" jobs, has saved the government's "recovery" statistics in the last few years. Given the recent performance of the National Retail Association's Restaurant Performance Index, the jobs recovery 'party' just ended.
Since December 2007, it is clear where the jobs gains have been...
But judging by the lagged effect of the collapse of the Restaurant Performance Index, that party is over...
h/t @noalpha_allbeta
Just like it was in 2008...
We are sure this is nothing that some double-seasonal-adjustments can't fix, but for those who don't believe in unicorns, the lagged impact of a collapsing manufacturing economy have now hit the services sector... and with that knocked the last leg of the "recovery" stool out from under The Fed.