With much of Europe and Asia, including the U.K., France, Germany and China markets closed for Labor Day, Asian stocks and the dollar rose buoyed by news that Congress had reached a deal to keep the US government funded through the end of September. S&P futures are up 4 points or 0.2%. Oil declined as rigs targeting crude in the U.S. rose for a fifteenth week and output from Libya rebounded.
What’s happening this morning? Not a whole lot. The two big incremental headlines concerned China (the Apr PMIs were underwhelming) and US gov’t spending (as was widely expected a deal was reached to fund the gov’t until Sept 30 although a shutdown this fall, along w/a debt ceiling battle, remain distinct possibilities). Otherwise it was a relatively quiet weekend/morning. Note that a lot of the world (other than the US) is closed Mon 5/1 for Labor Day/May Day holidays (including HK/mainland China and Europe/London).
The Yen declined for a fifth day in six, while Treasuries retreated with gold.
The MSCI All Country World Index edged higher, after capping a sixth straight month of gains on Friday. Japan’s Topix rose to the highest level since March after its best week of the year. Trading volumes were lower than average due to holidays in most of Europe, China, India and Mexico, and a forthcoming three-day break in Japan.
MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.1%. Japan outperforming on upbeat earnings, with Japan's Nikkei climbing 0.4%, with high-tech blue chips gaining on strong earnings.
Asian shares initially took their cue from Wall Street, which dipped on Friday after data showed the U.S. economy grew at its weakest pace in three years in the first quarter. The mood brightened however, on news that U.S. congressional negotiators hammered out a bipartisan agreement on a spending package to keep the federal government funded through Sept. 30, thus averting a government shutdown. Asian markets were little fazed by China's official manufacturing survey on Sunday which showed growth in the country's factories slowed more than expected in April to a six-month low.
Pointing to a higher open for the main market later in the day, E-minis gained about 0.2% while 10-year Treasury yields rose after three successive days of declines.
"It is hard for markets to make big moves with holidays in so many places today, and people are just waiting for more information to come out," said Harumi Taguchi, principal economist at IHS Markit in Tokyo.
"The main focus of the broader markets this week will be on the United States, with the Fed's May 2-3 policy meeting and the jobs report on Friday," said Masahiro Ichikawa, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management in Tokyo. "While many of the indicators in the first quarter were weak, the jobs data could confirm that labor market conditions continue to improve and lift the dollar and U.S. yields."
In currencies, the greenback was up 0.2 percent at 111.750 yen edging back towards a four-week peak of 111.780 reached last week. The euro handed back earlier modest gains and was flat at $1.0891. The common currency had been lifted on Friday after euro zone inflation data rose more than expected and returned to the European Central Bank's target. The euro was still in range of the 5-1/2-month high of $1.0951 struck early last week on relief over the first round of the French presidential elections. The pound was 0.3 percent lower at $1.2907 after climbing to a seven-month high of $1.2957 on Friday, when traders were seen to have closed off bets against the pound ahead of Britain's long bank holiday weekend. The Australian and New Zealand dollars were slightly lower at $0.7483 and $0.6856, respectively.
In commodities, crude oil prices slipped amid lingering concerns that an OPEC-led production cut has failed to significantly tighten an oversupplied market.U.S. crude shed 11 cents to $49.22 a barrel, heading back towards a one-month low of $48.20 plumbed late last week and Brent LCOc1 was down 16 cents at $51.89 per barrel. Oil was weighed by news that US rigs targeting crude in the U.S. rose for 15th week while output from Libya rebounded. The number of oil rigs operating in U.S. fields advanced to most since April 2015, according to Baker Hughes. Libya’s crude production rebounded to more than 700k b/d as the OPEC member’s biggest oil field and another deposit in its western region resumed pumping after halt. “Higher prices will attract American producers to ramp up production, especially in profitable areas like the Permian basin, and the conflict in Libya was already winding down last week,” says Sheldon Laliberte, a Rotterdam-based crude oil analyst at commodities trader Cofco International Ltd. “I’m structurally bearish oil right now.”
DISH Network, Advanced Micro Devices, Cardinal Health among companies scheduled to publish results. It is another busy week for earnings with 131 S&P 500 companies reporting and 85 Stoxx 600 companies reporting. Amongst those reporting are Apple, BP, BNP Paribas, Facebook, Merck, Tesla, Time Warner, Pfizer, HSBC, BMW, Shell and VW.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,385.00
- STOXX Europe 600 down 0.04% to 386.92
- MXAP up 0.2% to 149.12
- MXAPJ up 0.1% to 487.23
- Nikkei up 0.6% to 19,310.52
- Topix up 0.5% to 1,539.77
- Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 24,615.13
- Shanghai Composite up 0.08% to 3,154.66
- Sensex down 0.4% to 29,918.40
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 5,956.52
- Kospi down 0.2% to 2,205.44
- German 10Y yield rose 2.1 bps to 0.317%
- Euro down 0.01% to 1.0894 per US$
- Brent Futures down 0.6% to $51.72/bbl
- Italian 10Y yield rose 3.7 bps to 1.987%
- Spanish 10Y yield rose 2.2 bps to 1.648%
- Brent Futures down 0.6% to $51.72/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,262.81
- U.S. Dollar Index up 0.08% to 99.13
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
- U.S. House and Senate negotiators reached a bipartisan deal on a $1.1t spending bill that largely tracks with Democratic priorities and rejects most of President Donald Trump’s wish list, including money to begin building a wall along the U.S.-Mexican border
- The U.S. is considering a range of options, from expanded economic sanctions to military operations, as it reaches out to allies in confronting North Korea’s latest provocations, according to a senior Trump administration official
- Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron kick off the final week of the French presidential campaign with major rallies in Paris after weekend sparring on subjects ranging from the euro to the environment
- The pound fell as Prime Minister Theresa May stuck to her guns in arguing that Britain should be allowed to line up a “comprehensive” free-trade deal with the EU at the same time as it negotiates its departure from the bloc
- China’s official factory gauge declined on lower commodity prices, clouding the outlook for sustaining the past two quarters’ acceleration in economic growth
- U.S. Looks at Sanctions, Military Action Against North Korea; N. Korea Says Will Speed Up Steps to Bolster Nuclear Deterrence
- Fox, Blackstone Said Teaming to Make Competing Tribune Bid
- China Manufacturing Gauge Declines From Almost Five-Year High
- HSBC, RBS Saudi Arabian Ventures in Talks to Merge
- Macquarie, Hastings-Led Groups Said to Bid for Endeavour Energy
- First NBC Bank Fails; Deposits Assumed by Hancock’s Whitney Bank
- U.S. Oil Output to Expand 400k B/D This Year: Continental’s Hamm
- BNSF Says Track Outages in U.S. Midwest Impacting Operations
- Coach Said Considering Takeover of Jimmy Choo: Telegraph
- GSO Capital Partners Said to Buy More J. Crew Debt: Reuters
- Elliott Said to Meet BHP’s Australian Holders This Week: Reuters
Most of Asia was closed Monday for holidays (HK, mainland China, Taiwan, Korea, India, and others, were closed). Japan was open and saw decent gains (TPX +0.52%, NKY +0.59%). Australia also ended higher (+0.55%). News was quiet in Asia other than some eco headlines – the China NBS Apr PMIs were mildly underwhelming while Macau Apr gaming revs and Japan’s manufacturing PMI were both about inline. Within the NKY, tech was by far the top performer (the Japanese info tech index ended up ~3.8%) while materials did well too (energy, discretionary, healthcare, and utilities lagged). Tokyo Electron and Nippon Electric Glass both surged on earnings (up ~13.3% and ~11.7%, respectively); note that Tokyo Electron is just the latest pos. data point for semi equipment (semi equipment stocks have posted very healthy results).
Top Asian News
- Korea Exports Surge for Sixth Month on Ships and Semiconductors
- North Korea Test-Fires a Ballistic Missile: Yonhap
- China April Manufacturing PMI at 51.2; Est. 51.7
- Japan Govt Considers Installing Aegis Defense System: Kyodo
- Mongolia Expects IMF Bailout to Happen ‘Soon’ After Postponement
- Lotte Chairman to Meet Hershey Chairman on U.S Trip: Yonhap
- PBOC Official Says China Should Deleverage Properly: Caijing
- Freeport Union Says About 8,000 Grasberg Workers Join Strike
- Nakheel, Hilton Agree Partnership for Rooms, Apartments in Dubai
- Macau Casino Revenue Gains for Ninth Month With High-Stakes Bets
Most European markets are closed due to the Labor Day/May 1 holiday.
Top European News
- Le Pen Says Her Presidency Will Lead to the End of the Eur
- Macron, Le Pen Kick Off Final Week With Major Paris Rallies
- Britain’s May Sticks to Guns Seeking Parallel Brexit Talks
- Renzi Faces Uphill Battle to Italy Premiership After Primary Win
- Novo Settles U.S. Probe of Kickbacks, Disguised Salespeople
- DLR Kredit Plans to Issue DKK1b in Senior Resolution Notes
- Alitalia Bridge Loan to Be Higher Than EU500m, La Stampa Says
- Luxottica 1Q Rev. Soft, Improving Trends May Be Supportive: RBC
- AB Science FY Revenue Decreases to EU1.5m
- Netherlands April Manufacturing PMI Unchanged at 57.8
- Danske Bank Raised to Strong Buy at Jyske Bank, PT DKK300
- Turkey’s Erdogan Says Need to Alleviate Exchange-Rate Pressure
In currencies, the yen fell as much as 0.4 percent to 111.92 per dollar to the lowest level since the end of March and traded at 111.74 in early morning trading. The currency last week had the biggest slide since the Fed raised U.S. rates in December. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index added 0.1 percent, while the broader dollar DXY index was up 0.2 percent at 111.750 yen edging back towards a four-week peak of 111.780 reached last week. The euro handed back earlier modest gains and was flat at $1.0891. The common currency had been lifted on Friday after euro zone inflation data rose more than expected and returned to the European Central Bank's target. The euro was still in range of the 5-1/2-month high of $1.0951 struck early last week on relief over the first round of the French presidential elections. The pound was 0.3 percent lower at $1.2907 after climbing to a seven-month high of $1.2957 on Friday, when traders were seen to have closed off bets against the pound ahead of Britain's long bank holiday weekend. The Australian and New Zealand dollars were slightly lower at $0.7483 and $0.6856, respectively.
In commodities, crude oil prices slipped amid lingering concerns that an OPEC-led production cut has failed to significantly tighten an oversupplied market.U.S. crude shed 11 cents to $49.22 a barrel, heading back towards a one-month low of $48.20 plumbed late last week and Brent LCOc1 was down 16 cents at $51.89 per barrel. Oil was weighed by news that US rigs targeting crude in the U.S. rose for 15th week while output from Libya rebounded. The number of oil rigs operating in U.S. fields advanced to most since April 2015, according to Baker Hughes. Libya’s crude production rebounded to more than 700k b/d as the OPEC member’s biggest oil field and another deposit in its western region resumed pumping after halt. “Higher prices will attract American producers to ramp up production, especially in profitable areas like the Permian basin, and the conflict in Libya was already winding down last week,” says Sheldon Laliberte, a Rotterdam-based crude oil analyst at commodities trader Cofco International Ltd. “I’m structurally bearish oil right now.”
US Event Calendar
- 8:30am: Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%; Personal Spending, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%
- Real Personal Spending, est. 0.3%, prior -0.1%
- PCE Deflator MoM, est. -0.2%, prior 0.1%
- PCE Deflator YoY, est. 1.9%, prior 2.1%
- PCE Core MoM, est. -0.1%, prior 0.2%
- PCE Core YoY, est. 1.6%, prior 1.8%
- 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 52.8, prior 52.8
- 10am: ISM Manufacturing, est. 56.5, prior 57.2
- ISM Prices Paid, est. 67.5, prior 70.5
- ISM New Orders, prior 64.5
- ISM Employment, prior 58.9
- Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.45%, prior 0.8%
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Welcome to May. Given that today is either a May Day or Labour Day public holiday in most European countries we’ll be holding back the usual monthly performance review for tomorrow’s EMR. As always though we’ve got the full run through of what is another reasonably busy week ahead at the end. For markets this week we’ve got the double header of a Fed meeting on Wednesday and US employment report on Friday. Barring a big surprise though it’s more than likely that the Fed meeting is a bit of non-event and it’s hard to see the FOMC statement really diverging off course for now. It’s worth noting that there is no scheduled press conference after the meeting either. In terms of payrolls, the emphasis for now in terms of the timing and pace of global hikes in recent months has shifted away from employment and over to inflation and so this release is probably less of a focal point than it has been in the past.
Away from that, this week we’ll also get the final revisions to the April global PMIs which will be closely watched as always. Meanwhile ahead of this Sunday’s second round presidential election in France the two candidates, Macron and Le Pen, are scheduled to take part in a live televised debate on Wednesday evening which is certainly worth keeping an eye on. The last 5 polls all released in the past few days show Macron as holding an average lead of 20pp over Le Pen. This is down marginally from the 24pp average in the first 5 polls after the first round result but still represents a pretty comfortable margin for Macron. As we said this time last week it would take a numerical shock perhaps 5-10 times larger than Brexit or Trump for Le Pen to win. Staying with politics, this week President Trump is scheduled to meet Palestinian Authority President Abbas on Wednesday and Australian Prime Minister Turnbull on Thursday. After Congress averted a government shutdown on Friday lawmakers are also expected to hammer out the necessary legislation this week to keep the government funded for the rest of this fiscal year. In fact overnight news has emerged that Congress has tentatively reached a deal on a $1.1tn bill so worth seeing how that develops today. Meanwhile the situation in North Korea is never too far from the front pages with US National Security Adviser McMaster telling Fox News that the US and its allies need to respond, whether that be through military operations or enforcement of UN sanctions, following the news of a ballistic missile launch in North Korea on Saturday.
Not to be outdone, this week is another fairly big one for earnings with 131 S&P 500 companies and 85 Stoxx 600 companies reporting. Amongst the big names are Apple (Tuesday), BP (Tuesday), Facebook (Wednesday) and Shell (Thursday).
We’ll see if they can continue what has been a decent start to earnings season to date. Indeed the trend so far is one of the strongest on record. In the US we have had reports from about 60% of the S&P 500 and 81% have beat at the earnings line, coming in 6.7% above consensus. This compares to the historical beat of 73% of companies and a median beat of 3.4%. This is made even more impressive by the fact that consensus estimates were not downgraded in the month leading up to earnings season compared to a typical 1% downgrade according to DB’s Binky Chadha. He notes also that the results so far point to 15% EPS growth in Q1 which is the fastest pace since 2011. Our European equity strategists note also that EPS growth of Stoxx 600 companies has accelerated to 23% with reported earnings being 13% above pre-season expectations.
Switching our focus now to the main weekend news. In terms of data, the main focus was on China where yesterday we got the official April PMIs. The data came in a little bit softer compared to March. The manufacturing PMI was reported as falling 0.6pts to 51.2 (vs. 51.7 expected) and the lowest level this year, while the non-manufacturing PMI declined 1.1pts to 54.0 and the lowest since October last year. The majority of markets in Asia are closed today including China so we might have to wait to see if there is much of a reaction tomorrow. Of those open however both the Nikkei (+0.50%) and ASX (+0.29%) have edged higher on thin volumes while US equity futures are also slightly firmer. The Greenback also rebounded from early losses following the spending bill headlines.
In terms of other news to report from the weekend, in Italy former PM Renzi was re-elected as the head of the ruling Democratic Party after securing more than 70% of votes. His reappointment was largely as expected however the margin of victory will likely be seen as giving Renzi a strong mandate ahead of a general election early next year. Meanwhile the latest Brexit development concerns the release of the European Council guidelines which are intended to govern the EU’s Brexit negotiations with the UK (you can find them here https://goo.gl/ nW8NBO) which were unanimously backed following a gathering in Brussels on Saturday. EU President Donald Tusk said following the meeting that “we now have unanimous support from all the 27 member states and the EU institutions, giving us a strong political mandate for these negotiations”. EC President Juncker added that “the negotiations will be difficult and it will be even difficult to retain the unity that we were able to have today”.
A quick wrap-up now of how markets closed out last week. Following a strong run for most of the week, risk assets seemed to run out of steam a bit on Friday. Despite some decent earnings in the tech sector from Amazon and Alphabet the S&P 500 (-0.19%), Dow (-0.19%), Stoxx 600 (-0.18%) and DAX (-0.05%) all finished with what were fairly modest losses still as markets digested a huge amount of economic data released on both sides on the pond. Much of the focus was on the Q1 GDP report in the US which revealed growth of just +0.7% qoq (vs. +1.0% expected). A negative contribution from inventories was cited as significantly weighing on growth along with a decline in government consumption. Private consumption eked out a small +0.3% saar gain. Our US economists estimate also that one reason for the weakness is residual seasonality with government statisticians not properly adjusting the data for normal seasonal variation. They estimate this to be worth 110bps on Q1 real GDP. Rates markets were seemingly more distracted by the ECI print however which came in at a higher than expected +0.8% qoq (vs. +0.6% expected) and the largest quarterly increase since Q4 2007. 10y Treasury yields touched a high of 2.334% intraday following that before settling down to finish just over 1bp lower on the day at 2.281%.
Away from that, in the US we also got the April Chicago PMI which was up 0.6pts to 58.3 in the month (vs. 56.2 expected). The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading for April was revised down 1pt to 97.0. Measures of inflation expectations were left unchanged however.
Closer to home in Europe the main focus was on the April CPI report for the Euro area. Headline CPI rebounded four-tenths to +1.9% yoy last month (vs. +1.8% expected) while the core rebounded five-tenths to +1.2% yoy (vs. +1.0% expected) which is the highest since June 2013. Given the timing of Easter – with services inflation accounting for the big jump – we will need to see another month of data to assess how much of the move has been sustained in reality. Away from that, Q1 GDP in the UK came in at +0.3% qoq which was also the same for growth in France. Both were a tenth below expectations.
Over to this week’s calendar now. As highlighted earlier, with it being a public holiday in the UK, Germany and France amongst other countries today, the main focus will be on the US session where there are a number of important releases include the PCE core and deflator readings and personal income and spending reports for March, as well as the ISM manufacturing reading for April and construction spending in March. Tuesday kicks off in Asia with the Japan services and composite April PMIs and Caixin manufacturing PMI in China. Over in Europe all eyes will be on the final April manufacturing PMIs as well as a first look at the data for the periphery and UK. The Euro area unemployment rate will also be released. In the US tomorrow the only data due out is vehicle sales in April.
Kicking things off on Wednesday will be Germany where the April unemployment numbers are due to be released. Shortly after that we’ll get Euro area PPI for March and then the advanced Q1 GDP report for the Euro area. In the US on Wednesday we’ll get the ADP employment change report in April and the final April PMIs and ISM non-manufacturing reading. In the evening on Wednesday all eyes then turn over to the Fed meeting. In Asia on Thursday the early data is out of China with the remaining April Caixin PMIs. In Europe we’ll also get the remaining April services and composite PMIs as well as Euro area retail sales in March and UK money and credit aggregates data. In the US on Thursday the data includes initial jobless claims, Q1 nonfarm productivity and unit labour costs, March trade balance, March factory orders and the final revisions to March durable and capital goods orders. With little of note in Europe on Friday the main focus will be on the US where we’ll get the April employment report including nonfarm payrolls.
Away from the data, this week’s Fedspeak is reserved for Friday when we’ll hear separately from Fischer, Williams and Yellen, as well as a panel debate with Rosengren, Evans and Bullard. Over at the ECB this week we are due to hear from Nouy and Nowotny on Tuesday and Lautenschlaeger, Praet, Draghi and Mersch on Thursday. At the BoJ we are due to hear from Kuroda on Tuesday, as well as receiving the minutes from the BoJ meeting last month. Other important events this week include a Fox interview with US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin today, a meeting between Germany’s Merkel and Russia’s Putin on Tuesday, Wednesday’s live televised debate between French presidential candidates Macron and Le Pen, Wednesday’s meeting between President Trump and Palestinian Authority President Abbas and UK local elections on Thursday. Finally, expect earnings to also be a big focus for markets this week with 131 S&P 500 companies reporting and 85 Stoxx 600 companies reporting. Amongst those reporting are Apple, BP, BNP Paribas, Facebook, Merck, Tesla, Time Warner, Pfizer, HSBC, BMW, Shell and VW.