From Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management, here is a topical anecdote, as well as a review of the key events in the past week.
Weekend Notes
“Where’s the beef?” bellowed Biggie Too. “Health care, regulation reform, tax cuts – where’s it at?” continued the Chief Global Strategist for one of those too big to fail affairs.
“You boys were always gonna face this moment,” barked Biggie, sliding into a slow groove.
“But here’s the thing brotha. The market doesn’t care about health care - you know that. Poor people care about health care. And the market doesn’t care about poor people. No one cares about poor people.” Biggie nodded, smiled, a big golden smile.
And pulled out a roll; crisp $100 notes. “The market only cares about taxes, regulations baby. It’s all about the Benjamins.”
Overall:
- “You cannot spend all the money on drinks and women, then ask for help,” said some Dutch dude with an utterly unpronounceable name, trying on a little Trump, just to see how it feels to call it as you see it. “Dijsselbloem lost a great opportunity to be quiet,” responded Italy’s failed former prime minister Renzi. “Dijsselbloem’s European vision is evident in the union’s policies: a presumed economic, moral and even cultural superiority coming from northern countries, to the detriment of the South,” announced the Five Star Movement, memories of Berlusconi’s Bunga Bunga parties echoing off the ruins of Caligula’s castle.
- “It’s worth bearing in mind that the UK helped restructure Germany’s post-war debts at the 1953 London conference,” said Sir Bill Cash, presiding over the EU Exit Committee, reminding Europeans of the devastation inflicted by Germany. You see, Sir Cash wants nothing of the E60bln Brexit bill. “It might be worth tactfully reminding people - not one of my strongest points - that there’s a realistic position here that we don’t really owe anything to the EU,” concluded Cash, Europe’s endless war with itself always a scratch below the surface.
- The European Central Bank urged Brussels to toughen sanction procedures against governments who persistently fall foul of its economic rules, as over 90 per cent of its reform recommendations had been ignored by member states last year.
- “If they weren’t ashamed, they would revive the gas chambers,” said Turkish President Erdogan, referring to the Dutch and Germans for their opposition to his revival of the Ottomon Empire. “Turks in Europe should have five children, not three, because you are the future,” ordered Erdogan, fanning the Far Right’s anti-Islam flames. And in America, the Republican majority refused to deny 24mm poor people health care. Then moved on to our only real problems, like over-regulation and complex taxation.
Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms):
Mon: May to trigger Article 50 on Mar 29th, German PPI +3.1% (5yr high), Macron takes lead in 1st round poll with 25.5% (Le Pen 25.0%), Comey testifies on Russia links to Trump (discredits Trump claims of Obama wiretapping and other conspiracy theories), S&P -0.2%; Tue: Japan sovereign CDS hits 2008 lows (45bps), RBA warns of housing market froth, Macron performs well in debate (Le Pen shows poorly), UK CPI +2.3% (3.5yr high), UK home prices +6.2%, US Q4 current account deficit -0.1 to 2.4%, fears rise that Trump running into legislative obstacles, Trump record low 37% approval rating (58% disapproval), small-cap stocks surrender 2017 gains, S&P -1.2% (largest fall since Oct); Wed: Chinese banks ordered to rein in home loan growth (iron ore -6%), Japan exports +11.7% (+28.2% to China, +0.4% to US) imports +1.2%, UK terror attack (4 dead), EU current account surplus 15mth low, US oil stocks jump (imports surge), existing home sales slow (limited supply, high prices), S&P +0.2%; Thur: EU banks borrow E223bln from TLTRO, UK retail sales +3.7% (online +20.7%), Fed’s Williams “3-4 rate hikes make sense in 2017,” new home sales rise most since July, unemployment claims +15k to 258k (highest since Jan), S&P -0.1%; Fri: Japan PMI -0.7 to 52.6, Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak released, Russia cuts 25bps to 9.75% (1st cut in 7mths), EU PMIs hit 6yr high, Le Pen meets Putin and says “Russia will not interfere in French elections,” Pope Francis urges Europe to “show solidarity” as the antidote to populism, Portuguese budget deficit 40yr low of 2.1%, US drillers wkly rig count +21 to 652 (vs 372 last March), US M&A deals -21% vs Feb 2016, Trump approves Keystone pipeline, Republicans abandon healthcare vote (Trump moves on to tax reform), VIX index jumps to 2017 high of 14.16 (settled 12.96), Mnuchin “Tax reform much simpler than healthcare,” durable goods orders rise, S&P -0.1%; Sat: 60th anniversary for the EU.
Weekly Close:
S&P 500 -1.4% and VIX +1.68 at +12.96. Nikkei -1.3%, Shanghai +1.0%, Euro Stoxx -0.5%, Bovespa -0.6%, MSCI World -1.0%, and MSCI Emerging +0.2%. USD rose +1.0% vs Australia, +0.6% vs Brazil, and +0.2% vs Canada. USD fell -1.6% vs Mexico, -1.3% vs Yen, -0.8% vs Turkey, -0.7% vs Sterling, -0.6% vs Euro, -0.5% vs Russia, -0.3% vs China, -0.3% vs Chile, -0.1% vs Indonesia, and -0.1% vs India. Gold +1.3%, Silver +2.0%, Oil -2.3%, Copper -1.8%, Iron Ore -7.9%, Corn -3.3%. 5y5y inflation swaps (EU -3bps at 1.65%, US -2bps at 2.39%, JP flat at 0.49%, and UK +8bps at 3.51%). 2yr Notes -6bps at 1.26% and 10yr Notes -9bps at 2.42%.
YTD Equity Indexes:
Poland +20.9% priced in US dollars (+14.1% priced in zloty), Argentina +18.9% in dollars (+16.5% in pesos), Mexico +18.1% (+7.5%), Chile +16.5% (+14.7%), Korea +15.9% (+7.0%), India +15.6% (+11.3%), Taiwan +14.3% (+7.0%), Spain +12.9% (+10.2%), Singapore +12.9% (+9.1%), Turkey +12.9% (+15.7%), South Africa +12.3% (+1.7%), Austria +10.7% (+8.1%), Brazil +10.7% (+6.0%), HK +10.5% (+10.7%), Czech Republic +9.2% (+6.6%), Netherlands +8.4% (+5.9%), NASDAQ +8.3% (+8.3%), Malaysia +7.8% (+6.3%), Germany +7.6% (+5.1%), Switzerland +7.6% (+4.8%), Italy +7.5% (+5.0%), Sweden +7.4% (+4.1%), Australia +7.2% (+1.5%), Euro Stoxx 50 +7.2% (+4.7%), Indonesia +6.9% (+5.1%), Belgium +6.4% (+3.9%), China +6.2% (+5.3%), Japan +6.0% (+0.8%), Thailand +5.9% (+2.0%), France +5.8% (+3.3%), Finland +5.0% (+2.5%), Philippines +4.9% (+6.3%), Denmark +4.7% (+2.3%), S&P 500 +4.7% (+4.7%), New Zealand +4.1% (+2.8%), UK +4.0% (+2.7%), Israel +4.0% (-1.3%), Ireland +3.9% (+1.5%), Portugal +3.9% (+1.4%), Colombia +3.3% (-0.4%), Hungary +2.4% (+0.3%), Norway +2.4% (+0.8%), Canada +1.6% (+1.0%), Greece +1.2% (-1.2%), Russell -0.2% (-0.2%), UAE -1.1% (-1.1%), Russia -1.9% (-8.6%), and Saudi Arabia -4.5% (-4.6%).