If you believe San Francisco Fed President John Williams, the US labor market has almost never been ore robust than it is today. Of course, middle- and working-class Americans who are struggling with levels of financial uncertainty that would be unfamiliar to their parents’ generation don’t necessarily care that the official unemployment rate is 4.4%. They’re too busy struggling to make ends meet when real wages have been stagnant for decades and economic growth is expected to slouch along at 2% for the foreseeable future.
While researching their new book “The Financial Diaries,” Jonathan Morduch and Rachel Schneider followed more than 200 working and middle-class families around for a year and tracked “every dollar of their financial lives." They found that millions of workers without college degrees, especially those who are paid hourly, or who are paid by commission, experience what they call call income variability - when their pay fluctuates by 25% above or below their average. One of Murdoch and Schneider's subjects, a truck mechanic named Jeremy, even quit his job to take a lower paying job with a steady salary.
They discussed their findings during an episode of Bloomberg's "Benchmark" podcast.
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“When we first met him, his weekly paychecks were very variable. And he was bearing all that risk. At the end of the year, he quit his job for another job with lower pay that was more steady. ”
“On average, we’re seeing households spend about five months of the year where their income was 25% above their average or 25% below their average. So income insecurity wasn’t about ‘am I going to lose my job,’ it’s about ‘how am I going to navigate the ups and downs in my given job.’”
The pair also found that existing financial services don't adequately serve the needs of workers struggling with income variability. Schneider discussed how one subject whom she called Jane intentionally placed obstacles to withdrawing money from her savings account.
“Often the strategies they were using to make that money stretch show gaps in how financial services are or are not serving them. For example, we tell the story in the book of a woman called Janice who has a savings account and a checking account but she cut up her checkbook for her checking account and she cut up her ATM card. She has those accounts in different institutions and the savings account is an hour’s drive from her home.”
“A bank might say she’s not using those products right, she’s paying check cashers and fees on money orders to pay her bills she’s using it wrong. But I look at it the other way she actually wants some wall between herself and her spending or savings. She cut up the check book because she doesn’t want temptation to take out payday loans which she’s had trouble with in the past.”
Regardless of race, workers without degrees are stuggling "in a lot of ways."
“One of the things that we see is that today workers without college degrees are struggling in a lot of ways. We see that in the labor market in terms of wages and what our data and related data are showing is it’s not just average wages they also are facing much more instability than other workers."
"The economic backlash is being felt by lower class workers, regardless of race, because the system isn’t working for the poor.Black workers have a hard time and white worker as well are living very precarious lives. Even though they have jobs there’s economic anxiety in America even for people with jobs. And that’s the big puzzle in America. That people are trying to sort out what the big answer is but you spend time and follow people month to month you see exactly why there’s so much anxiety in a sense because the system really isn’t working for them.”