Michael Moore, the Democratic filmmaker who perfectly predicted Trump's 2016 election victory, is back with another prediction that the DNC should probably take notice of as soon as possible. In an interview with Fast Company, Moore said that "as it stands now" Trump, despite an approval rating in the 30's (if you believe such things), will win re-election in 2020.
Three weeks into the run of his anti-Trump Broadway show, The Terms of My Surrender, filmmaker and activist Michael Moore tells Fast Company that the president will be reelected in 2020. “I should say re-appointed, because we will have an even larger population that will vote against him in 2020,” Moore says. “But he will win those electoral states as it stands now.”
Of course, while we wouldn't normally suggest you lend much credence to the political opinions of celebrities, despite their exuberance to shove them down your throat every time they're presented with an opportunity to do so, Michael Moore proved to have some extraordinary insight on the Midwest electorate when he predicted in October 2016 that Trump would win WI, MI, OH and PA. For those who missed it, Moore's prediction, delivered at a time that most pollsters were calling for a blowout 12-point victory for Hillary, was spot on. Here's a recap:
Americans might be penniless, they might be homeless, they might be fucked over and fucked up it doesn't matter, because it's equalized on that day - a millionaire has the same number of votes as the person without a job: one. And there's more of the former middle class than there are in the millionaire class. So on November 8 the dispossessed will walk into the voting booth, be handed a ballot, close the curtain, and take that lever or felt pen or touchscreen and put a big fucking X in the box by the name of the man who has threatened to upend and overturn the very system that has ruined their lives: Donald J Trump.
Yes, on November 8, you Joe Blow, Steve Blow, Bob Blow, Billy Blow, all the Blows get to go and blow up the whole goddamn system because it's your right. Trump's election is going to be the biggest fuck you ever recorded in human history and it will feel good.
On the upside, Moore has a plan to defeat Trump and all it requires is a minor constitutional amendment that radically changes the entire election process of arguably the oldest democracy in the world...should be an easy fix with the 3 years left before election day.
As dire as Moore’s prediction is–and let’s not forget that he was one of the few people who foresaw a Trump victory–he has a plan to change how it stands. His show is an attempt to generate the momentum and activism he thinks we need to shift the facts before the next election. “Here’s the good news: We don’t have to convince a single Trump voter to vote differently because we already have the majority,” Moore says, pointing out that Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 3 million.
But she lost the electoral college by 77,000 votes in total in the states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and despite a movement afoot now to abolish the electoral college, it’s unlikely that is going to happen anytime soon, Moore says.
That said, he believes the National Popular Vote interstate compact, an agreement between states to award all of their electoral votes to the candidate who wins the popular vote, could succeed as a workaround if we can convince enough state legislatures to pass it in time. So far, it has won approval in 10 states and Washington, D.C.–the agreement will only be enacted once states delivering a total of 270 electoral votes have signed on, and it’s still far from that goal.
“That’ll be an easier way to get this done,” Moore says. “People should not despair, thinking, well, the Republicans have all this power and all that. Think of the suffragettes. They were trying to get the vote for women. They got [the 19th Amendment ratified] in 35 states to give women the right to vote. Think of that uphill battle.”
Of course, we suspect that even Moore knows that his plan is a long shot...to put it mildly. That said, he does apparently find great hope in the future of America because "the angry white guy is dying out."
Another voting block that needs to be encouraged to show up on election day: young people. “Here’s another positive thing to look at: Every year 3 million 18-year-olds become adults and [potential] voters, and we raised those kids,” Moore says. “We’ve raised a generation of kids who don’t hate people on the basis of race, or they don’t hate somebody because they’re in love with somebody of the same gender.”
Moore is heartened by the changing demographics of the United States. “Nearly 70% of the country is either female, people of color, or young adults between 18 and 35, or a combination of the three. The angry white guy is dying out, and the Census Bureau has already told us that by 2050, white people are going to be the minority, and I’m not sad to say I can’t wait for that day to happen. I hope I live long enough to see it because it will be a better country.”
Ironically, Michael Moore seems to be one of the "angriest white guys" making political headlines these days...but we're sure that irony is lost on him.