The Pyramid of S&P 500 Returns: 152 Years of Market Performance
Key Takeaways
- The S&P 500 has finished in positive territory in nearly 75% of years since 1871.
- 2026 could mark the fourth consecutive year of gains, which has been rarely seen throughout the S&P 500’s history.
- Wall Street strategists expect an average return of 12% for the index in 2026.
Over the past 152 years, the S&P 500 has delivered a wide spectrum of annual returns, ranging from catastrophic downturns like 1931’s -44%, to massive bull runs such as 1954’s +45%. Using data from TradingView, the visualization above charts every calendar-year performance of the S&P 500 since 1871.
As we enter 2026, Wall Street optimism is running high. All 21 strategists surveyed foresee gains for the S&P 500 this year, marking a rare consensus among analysts.
How Have Returns Been Distributed Historically?
Here’s the historical distribution of S&P 500 annual returns, compiled by TradingView:
| Annual S&P 500 Return Range | Number of Years in Range | Share of Years in Range |
|---|---|---|
| 40 to 50% or more | 3 | 2.0% |
| 30 to 40% | 9 | 5.3% |
| 20 to 30% | 22 | 14.6% |
| 10 to 20% | 34 | 22.5% |
| 0 to 10% | 30 | 19.9% |
| 0 to -10% | 25 | 16.6% |
| -10 to -20% | 18 | 11.9% |
| -20 to -30% | 7 | 4.6% |
| -30 to -40% | 3 | 2.0% |
| -40 to -50% or more | 1 | 0.7% |
Roughly 3 in 4 years have seen positive returns, with the most common range being between 10% and 20%. Only a handful of years (just 2%) delivered returns above 40%, underscoring how rare years like 1954 or 1995 truly are. On the downside, only a small cluster of years produced losses beyond -20%.
2026 Outlook: Optimism Across the Board
For the S&P 500 in 2026, analysts are forecasting an average return of 12%, citing continued earnings growth and resilient consumer demand.
Multiple investment firms, including Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, expect momentum in tech, AI, and small-cap sectors to drive performance this year. As noted in our global stock markets wrap for 2025, U.S. equities outperformed many international peers, bolstering investor confidence further.
Where Will 2026 Land on the Chart?
If the forecasted 12% gain materializes, 2026 would fall within the historically common 10–20% return range. That would place it alongside years like 2016 and 2010, which would be solid, unspectacular, and consistent with long-term averages.
Based on analyst forecasts compiled in Visual Capitalist’s 2026 Predictions Database exclusively on VC+, the consensus outlook for U.S. equities leans constructively bullish, but more selective.
Key themes expected to shape 2026:
- Moderate positive returns: Many strategists cluster around expectations of roughly 10–12% total returns, close to historical averages.
- Leadership may broaden beyond the largest mega‑cap tech names, with increased interest in industrials, defense, and select small‑cap segments.
- AI remains a structural tailwind, though gains may be more uneven as adoption spreads beyond the so‑called “Magnificent Seven.”
- Higher dispersion: Stock selection and sector rotation are expected to matter more than broad index exposure alone.
Put simply, 2026 is shaping up to look less like a speculative surge, and more like a market digesting gains while still moving higher.
But as history shows, market behavior can be unpredictable. Whether 2026 joins the ranks of great bull years, or surprises to the downside, remains to be seen.