Having slept on it, I don’t have much more to say about the blowout victories of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders than you’ve read in a thousand other places. Hillary is bound to get the Democratic nomination, but so far, we have seen a massive vote of no confidence in the Democratic establishment by its voters. That more than a small minority of Democratic voters are choosing an elderly socialist over Hillary Clinton tells you how out-of-touch the Democratic establishment is with its voters.
Same is true for the GOP and its voters. A Trump-Cruz race is a nightmare for Republican bigs. If the Establishment could have settled on a candidate, it would still be competitive, but it has not, it apparently cannot, and so while Bush, Rubio, and Kasich fight for the scraps, Trump and Cruz will both roll through South Carolina, where they are both far ahead of the pack in polls — and where Trump is far ahead of Cruz. That a trash-talking New York billionaire who violates Republican Party orthodoxies is by far and away the leading choice of the grassroots, at least to this point, is a staggering blow to the GOP establishment. Read Byron York’s post-NH report:
In late January, the New Hampshire Republican Party held a gathering that attracted GOP officials, volunteers, activists, and various other members of the party elite from across the state. At the time, Donald Trump led the Republican presidential race in New Hampshire by nearly 20 points, and had been on top of the polls since July.
What was extraordinary about the gathering was that I talked to a lot of people there, politically active Republicans, and most of them told me they personally didn’t know anyone who supported Trump. Asked about the Trump lead, one very well-connected New Hampshire Republican told me, “I don’t see it. I don’t feel it. I don’t hear it, and I spend part of every day with Republican voters.”
Readers of the story came to one of two conclusions. Either New Hampshire Republican leaders were so out of touch that they couldn’t tell something huge was happening right under their noses, or there really weren’t very many Trump voters, and the Trump phenomenon was a mirage that would fade before election day.
Now, with Trump’s smashing victory in the New Hampshire primary, we know the answer. There really were a lot of Trump voters out there, and party officials could not, or did not want, to see them.
York goes on to say that “Trump won everybody” in New Hampshire, indicating that his base there was broad. And because of that, says Ramesh Ponnuru, there is no clear anti-Trump strategy for Republicans. Though Matt Sitman’s suggestion suggests that Trump is in actuality a Reagan Slayer:
Perhaps conservative establishment needs to try strategy other than “Trump isn’t authentically conservative according to 1980s dogma”
— Matthew Sitman (@matthew_sitman) February 10, 2016
We really are into uncharted waters in American politics. Who on earth would have thought that the two candidates who represent the vitality in American politics in 2016 would be old guys from Brooklyn (Sanders) and Queens (Trump)? This is true too:
Trump, on his and Sanders’ wins: “We’re being ripped off, and he and I are the only people saying that.”
https://t.co/PLOm1R02L3— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) February 10, 2016
And this really gets to the radicalism of the present moment:
This is the first election of my adult life when one or both parties might not nominate establishment neoliberals.
— Daniel McCarthy (@ToryAnarchist) February 10, 2016
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