Update #2: Following the exit polls and the market's response, "Northern League" leader Salvini has called for early elections:
- SALVINI: NO VICTORY WOULD MEAN PEOPLE DEFEATING ESTABLISHMENT
- ITALY NORTHERN LEAGUE LEADER CALLS FOR EARLY ELECTIONS: MNI
* * *
Update #1: The Exit polls have begun:
- *ITALY REFERENDUM: 'NO' AT 55%-59% IN EMG EXIT POLL
- *ITALY REFERENDUM: 'NO' AT 55%-59% IN TECNE EXIT POLL
- *ITALY REFERENDUM: 'NO' AT 54%-58% IN RAI EXIT POLL
Exit polls have at times proved unreliable in Italy, underestimating Renzi’s 2014 victory in European elections by 10 percentage points, but for now, the market seems convinced...
EURUSD is tumbling...
Some comments from anti-establishmentarians have begin:
- LE PEN AIDE ON ITALIAN REFERENDUM RESULT TWEETS 'IT'S A GREAT VICTORY FOR THE PEOPLE...IT'S FOR OTHER NATIONS TO BE SET FREE'
Hope the exit polls in Italy are right. This vote looks to me to be more about the Euro than constitutional change.
— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) December 4, 2016
Turnout was high.
- *ITALY REFERENDUM: ITALIANS ABROAD TURNOUT 30.9%:FOREIGN OFFICE
So what happens next? We leave it to Doug Casey to sum it all up succinctly:
December 4 referendum fails >> M5S comes to power >> Italians vote to leave the euro currency >> European Union collapses
How did we get here? Here's a quick timeline from Bloomberg's Marco Bertacche
- April 15, 2014: The Senate approves first version of reform, backed by Renzi allies and Berlusconi's party
- Jan. 31, 2015: Renzi's candidate is elected president of the republic, prompting Berlusconi to withdraw support for reforms
- April 12, 2016: Lower house completes approval, lacking two-thirds majority needed to avoid referendum
- Aug. 4, 2016: Highest court accepts referendum request with more than 500,000 signatures from Yes campaign
- Sept. 26, 2016: Renzi's cabinet calls for Dec. 4 referendum. Decision is binding
* * *
As we detailed earlier, Italians voted Sunday in a referendum on constitutional reforms that Premier Matteo Renzi has staked his political future on, hoping to survive the rising populist forces that have gained traction across Europe.
Renzi has said he will resign if the reforms, which he contends will modernize Italy and reduce its legendary bureaucracy, are rejected. Opposition politicians, ranging from the far-right to the far-left have vowed to press for a new government if voters reject Parliamentary legislation overhauling much of the post-war Constitution.
Even some figures in Renzi's Democratic Party, including ex-Communists, said they'd vote against the reforms.
Polling stations are open from 7 a.m. to 11 p.m. local time (5pmET).
Bloomberg lays out what to expect, and when...
1500ET
Provisional turnout results for the vote as of 7 p.m. CET could indicate whether turnout is high in the South and Sicily, where anti-establishment parties are strong, which would signal bad news for Renzi. A high turnout in the Center and Northwest, his strongholds, may not be enough for him but could narrow the final margin. Renzi has indicated he’s aiming for a 60 percent turnout.
Overall turnout was around the 60% Renzi had expected, with a higher turnout in the North (more pro-Renzi) and lower turnout in the South (more anti-establishment)...
1800ET
Exit polls are published by at least three TV networks (RAI, LA7, Mediaset). Exit polls have often gotten it wrong in Italy. In the 2013 and 2006 general elections they overestimated the center-left’s lead by more than 5 points, and in 2008 they underestimated Silvio Berlusconi’s lead by 7 points. In the 2014 European elections, Renzi’s Democratic Party got almost 10 points more than exit polls predicted.
Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to speak at about midnight local time (6pmET) at his Rome residence, newswire Ansa citing his office.
1830-1845ET
First projections on counted votes may be published on TV stations. Votes will be counted continuously and updated on the Interior Ministry’s website throughout the night. A national total as well as regional and city breakdowns will be available.
1900ET
First provisional results from cities usually faster at counting votes should start coming in. Before a two-week poll blackout period, the “Yes” and “No” camps polled virtually even in the Northwest (Milan, Turin) and in the Center (Bologna), with the "No" side clearly ahead in the South (Naples) and in Sicily (Palermo). Milan could give the earliest real indication of where things are going. Traditionally a Berlusconi stronghold, it swung to center-left administrations in past years and elected a center-left mayor backing Renzi’s reforms in June. A wide lead for “No” in Milan could mean Renzi loses nationally.
1900-2000ET
New projections could indicate a winner before real vote counting is complete.
Before 2200ET
There may be a final result of counted votes nationally, but results from 4 million Italians abroad, who were eligible to vote until Dec. 1, could come later. While their turnout is typically lower than the national average, they have trended toward center-left candidates in recent elections and are usually pro-government. These voters weren’t included in pre-blackout polls. Their votes could come into play if the referendum margin is very close. Reports indicate that turnout for Italians abroad was higher than expected.
0200ET
Matteo Renzi is known to be tweeting extensively and could announce his decision on whether to offer his resignation, based on the referendum results, through social media.
So what happens next? We leave it to Doug Casey to sum it all up succinctly:
December 4 referendum fails >> M5S comes to power >> Italians vote to leave the euro currency >> European Union collapses