It was a primary "Super Saturday" of surprises for the presidential candidates after Bernie Sanders took two of three contested states in the Democratic race, winning the caucuses of Nebraska and Kansas leaving Hillary the only Democratic primary of the night in Louisiana, while in the Republican race Ted Cruz unexpectedly tied with Donald Trump, winning the smaller half of the night's four nominating contests, in Kansas - where Trump had been leading in the polls - and Maine, while the Donald won the bigger states of Louisiana and Kentucky, holding onto his lead in the presidential race even though Cruz captured more delegates on Saturday.
Despite Bernie's besting of Hillary in more than half of the night's contests, giving him seven of the states so far in the Democratic race, the allocation of delegates will be close. As the Hill calculates, Clinton took Louisiana, where 51 delegates are up for grabs and boosting her total state tally to 11, while Bernie will add only the 58 delegates at stake between Nebraska and Kansas where the Vermont senator won. Hillary has an even greater lead currently among superdelegates, the party leaders who can support anyone at the July convention regardless of the popular vote.
As has been largely the case so far in the Democratic rate, Sanders outperformed in states where the Democratic contests are dominated by white progressives, while Clinton held her dominance in states with large populations of minorities. Clinton entered the day with a substantial advantage in pledged delegates, leading 610 to 411.
Meanwhile, things were as eventful on the Republican side after Ted Cruz started off the day with a surprise smashing victory in Kansas where until recently Trump had enjoyed a substantial lead in the polls, and where the Texan ended up with over 48% of the vote and 24 delegates to Trump's 9, despite only getting 35,000 votes in the small state. Cruz also won Maine with approximately 46% of the vote, while Trump won the bigger states of Louisiana and Kentucky, which gave him 15 and 16 delegates respectively.
One possible explanation for Trump's less than blowout performance may be that tThe races on Saturday were open only to registered Republicans, excluding the independent and disaffected Democratic voters who have helped Trump's surge to the lead. In sum, the four Republican contests on Saturday together had little overall impact on the race and accounted for just 155 delegates. Cruz won 64 delegates on Saturday, while Trump took 49.
The big loser of the night, however, was Florida Senator Marco Rubio - as well as the broader GOP establishment - who was shut out in all 4 states and barely registered in the final totals; the loss in Kansas, where Rubio came in third with just over 16% of the vote, was particularly bitter as Rubio had previously won the backing of Kansas Governor Sam Brownback. As Reuters notes, Rubio's slow motion collapse merely validates what we have been saying since last summery, namely a grassroots repudiation of a Republican establishment that has bristled at the prospect of either Cruz or Trump winning the party's nomination and has largely lined up behind U.S. Senator Marco Rubio; an establishment which has failed to realize its endorsements and condemnations merely work against it.
"It looks like it will be the angry Trump voters against the purist conservative Cruz voters," said Washington-based Republican strategist Ron Bonjean. "The establishment is just being left out."
Trump quickly took the offensive to deflect from his weak showing in Kansas to focus on Rubio saying that "I think it's time that he dropped out of the race" adding that "I want Ted one on one."
For now Trump won't get his wish as Rubio seems intent on pushing on at least until the critical Florida primary, where Rubio is a senator but has been trailing in the polls behind Trump in recent days. A spokesman for Rubio, who spent the past week launching harsh personal attacks on Trump, said the senator would push on with an eye on the March 15 contest in Florida. "After we win the Florida primary, the map, the momentum and the money is going to be on our side," spokesman Alex Conant said in a statement.
On the other hand, should Rubio lose in Florida, that should finally narrow down the Republican competition to just two.
So with Super Saturday done, attention shifts to the next big primary contest which will take place this Tuesday in the industrial state of Michigan. Republicans in three other states, Mississippi, Idaho and Hawaii, also will vote on Tuesday. Puerto Rico Republicans will vote on Sunday.
Despite tonight's unexpected disappointment for Trump in Kentucky, he continues to carry the momentum on the back of the broader revulsion with a broken two-party system which no longer works for the silent majority, which as a result has come out of hibernation and is making itself heard once again.
Trump, 69, has a substantial lead in the delegates needed to secure the nomination at the Republican National Convention, but since winning seven of the 11 contests on Super Tuesday he has come under withering fire from a Republican establishment, including Mitt Romney's dramatic and scripted full-on attack on Trump last week, an attack which will likely backfire.
The anti-Trump forces have a short window to stop the caustic businessman, who ahead of Saturday had accumulated 319 of the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination at July's Republican national convention, outpacing Cruz, who had 226 delegates.
In fact, the Republican race for the nomination may be all over next Tuesday, March 15, when the delegate-rich states of Florida, Illinois, Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina will vote. As Reuters reminds us, both Florida and Ohio use the winner-take-all method to allocate Republican delegates, making the stakes in those states particularly high.
If Trump takes both Florida and Ohio he would be nearly impossible to stop. There are a total of 358 delegates at stake in the five states voting March 15, including 99 in Florida and 66 in Ohio. Which is bad news for the establishment because according to the latest RCP polls, Trump's lead in Florida - Rubio's "must win" state - is an almost insurmountable 18.7 points...
... while his lead in Ohio remains sizable, and in fact Trump is now ahead of Ohio governor John Kasich.
In fact, according to the most recent polls, Trump continues to enjoy a sizable lead in virtually all states:
March 8:
- Michigan primary (59 delegates): Trump leaing by 15.4 points
- Mississippi primary (40 delegates): Trump leading 24 points
March 15:
- Florida primary (99 delegates - winner takes all): Trump leading by 18.7 points and as of this moment is defeating local Senator Marco Rubio
- Illinois primary (69 delegates): Trump leading 15.5 points
- North Carolina primary (72 delegates): Trump leading by 10.3 points
- Ohio primary (66 delegates - winner takes all): Trump leading by five points and ahead of Ohio Gov. John Kasich
In summary, the Republican nomination is Trump's to lose, and with Florida and Ohio's "winner take all states" on deck, the outcome of the Republican primary race may be known as soon as March 15.